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According to RTBF, a first poll estimate shows:
Macron 24%

Le Pen 22%

Fillon 20,5%

Mélenchon 18%

However, as highlighted by Le Soir, there was no precision as to the source of RTBF data, nor the method used for these estimates. Moreover, the main nine French polling firms have agreed, with the French National Polling Commission, not to do any exit polls but rather to compile estimates based on the first 200 effective votes counted in 500 polling stations after 19:00; estimates shouldn't be available until 19:30-19:45.

More than ever, caveat emptor.

by Bernard on Sun Apr 23rd, 2017 at 03:42:20 PM EST
RTBF has been challenged on Twitter as to where their estimates come from; their reply, FWIW:

by Bernard on Sun Apr 23rd, 2017 at 03:47:57 PM EST
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