http://www.hoisingtonmgt.com/HIM2005Q3_NP.pdf
I don't know them, but the kossack that pointed me to this doc+. wrote that they had an exceptional macro track record in the past. They are basically saying that interest rates will not increase because the recession will come before inflation makes it necessary. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
House equity withdrawals are drying up. A fredie Mac study quoted in the above note suggests that house equity withdrawals made up 31% od personal consumption expenditures since 2000. That's a big fall in consumption that's coming.
And that graph (from Robert Schiller, the man who coined the expression "irrational exuberance", and then wrote the definitive book about it as the dotcom bubble burst) shows how far things could fall. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
