Also, isn't there an assumption here that economic growth requires the use of natural resources? Greenspan just said that oil is only about 2/3 as important as an economic input as it was in the 1970s; perhaps we could have an information economy that sustains ongoing growth. More books and music get written, more mathematics gets figured out, etc.
To all those economists out there: is there a source of Leontief Input-Output parameters available on the web, so we can actually put some legs on the argument that the fraction of the GDP that is spent buying energy is not representative of the energy's impact on the economic system? guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
Alternatively, using another model, the plague is relevant because you can have a constant growth scenario for centuries with a large reset every once in a while. The Roman Empire gave way to the dark ages. The middle ages gave way to the plague. Perhaps we're due for a reset.
That's not to say that it's particularly pleasant to live when the collapse is taking place!
I totally agree about "resets". However, if you are going to use resets to argue that most of the time we'll be growing fast, you have to include the resets in the calculation of the average growth rate and not dismiss them as outliers. guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
Aherm. So as I was saying. What the hell was I saying? Did I say channeling? But I didn't... I mean... where is Jerome when we need him anyway?
So I guess speaking of Rome/dark ages and Europe/plague and "resets" sort of put me in mind of patterns, Migeru, and your response that these should be included in the calculations rather than treated as outliers put me in mind of You Know Who. But in a good way!
If we could mathematically predict patterns of group behavior, I'm sure you'd be up to the task! And possibly DoDo. And Jerome could explain it all to us. Unless this is being taken as an insult (which I sincerely do not intend) in which case none of it has anything to do with anything or anybody here and I'm unreservedly apologetic for mentioning it.
Help! Paging... who's a famous, non-insult-invoking diplomat?!? This is all asdf's fault somehow! I'm almost sure of it... Maybe we can eventually make language a complete impediment to understanding. -Hobbes
Anyway, the "calculation" I had in mind was not a prediction of future behaviour but an analysis of historical data.
I might be persuaded to write a diary about self-organised criticality and what it can teach us about anything from earthquakes to forest fires to blackouts to boom-bust economic cycles. But first KCurie needs to write his promised diary on the 2nd law of thermodynamics. guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
with regard to the diary, it seems very blue-sky, if possible theoretically.
as for coca cola, it's poison. seeing the golden arches straddling every horizon may keep a lot of pension plans pumped, but it makes me feel sad and weary all at once.
counting gdp as an unqualified Good Thing is so yesterday.
in a general way i hope you're right, but as predictions go, this rings jejune and way over-optimistic to me, after months of stirling, bondad, and jerome's missives to mull on! ~"When an inner situation is not made conscious, it appears outside as fate." Karl Jung~
