Anyway, the "calculation" I had in mind was not a prediction of future behaviour but an analysis of historical data.

I might be persuaded to write a diary about self-organised criticality and what it can teach us about anything from earthquakes to forest fires to blackouts to boom-bust economic cycles. But first KCurie needs to write his promised diary on the 2nd law of thermodynamics.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper