Display:
Gee, looks like Britain goes through a boom-bust housing cycle every 10 years or so, and that the duration and amplitude of the cycles is increasing with each cycle.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 11th, 2005 at 11:42:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't think it'san "every ten years" thing.  Don't the booms on the chart correspond fairly well with particular parts of the business cycle?  I also note that the recent bubble, being larger than the others, came at a time when interest rates had been cut to near-record-lows, at least here in America.  I assume a similar story holds in Britain and elsewhere.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Fri Nov 11th, 2005 at 01:22:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, yes, I would expect the housing cycle to be in sync with the rest of the economy, but the UK curve is stark.

The US housing market appears to be on a similar cycle, with peaks and troughs happening almost at the same time, but the oscillations are shallower.

Maybe in the last business cycle the Fed and the BoE have forced the machine a little bit. Will the next cycle be even longer and deeper?

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 11th, 2005 at 01:36:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Perhaps.  I still can't figure out why GDP growth in the US has been so strong, while wage and job growth have been so terrible.  I've heard explanations, but none so far seem to really capture it.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Fri Nov 11th, 2005 at 01:42:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How about Hitler-like Keynesian military spending on one hand; and high domestic demand driven by household debt, in particular remortgaging, on the other? Is that not good enough? They have both been on a massive scale.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 11th, 2005 at 01:51:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In which thread did we discuss the keynesian nature of Hitler's armament and civil works plan? I think you should be more explicit in your comment, for those that do not necessarily read all threads, so that it can be understood on its real merit and not as another of these "crazy lefty" insults...

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Nov 11th, 2005 at 01:59:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Here. We were talking about Armistice Day and the consequences of the Treaty of Versailles.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 11th, 2005 at 02:03:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In my defence I'll say that Drew and I have been locked in a couple of long exchanges today, so it almost felt like a private chat.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 11th, 2005 at 02:05:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think it's fairly well understood that Hitler's economic advisors were familiar with The General Theory, though they probably would've built up the military, regardless.  (And I'm amazed Rothbard and Rand didn't attempt to blame Keynes for the rise of Hitler.)  That's obviously not to say that we should blow money on the military everytime we have a recession.  The far-Right spends too much on it, already, in America.  I'm honestly not big on fiscal policy as a tool to combat recession.

On some level, spending is spending is spending.  But it's clearly more advisable to spend on, say, infrastructure rather than on massive military buildup.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Fri Nov 11th, 2005 at 02:41:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Take a hundred billion currency units and choose between:

  1.  A fully operational aircraft carrier
  2.  A bunch of power plants

Which is going to be the better investment for further wealth creation?

Over the long term, military assest purchase are negative-sum (it costs money each year to keep them in shape) investments while productive assets are positive-sum investments.  

by ATinNM on Sat Nov 12th, 2005 at 11:37:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Right.  It costs enormous sums of money to keep military assets in proper condition, especially for countries with nukes.  On infrastructure, I was referring more so to roads, rail, schools, etc.  But power plants are a good example, too.  However, if we're going to invest in power plants with government money, they ought to be power plants run on renewable energy, in my opinion.

We're currently having a big fight in my hometown, Tallahassee, FL, over a coal plant that's being built in the neighboring county.  Tallahassee in a very Democratic city in a very Republican area of the country, and so, naturally, we're not wild about funding a new power plant based on coal.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sat Nov 12th, 2005 at 01:17:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Just force them to agree to installing carbon-capturing technology as a condition to allow the plant to be biult.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Nov 12th, 2005 at 03:03:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:
Login
. Make a new account
. Reset password
Occasional Series