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I think we had issues about how the UK is keeping up employment - Jérôme holds it's mainly public sector employment that is keeping numbers up - but we haven't had any serious picking at the UK numbers that I remember.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Nov 11th, 2005 at 10:15:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think Jerome is, at least to some extent, right.  But that was also partly my point.  The key difference between the US and the UK is how they're spending the money.  Bush spent it on tax cuts, which led, to no one's surprise, to a temporary increase in the savings rate.  But, as wages have not kept pace with inflation, the savings rate has fallen to roughly zero.

I think Bush and his economic advisors -- N. Gregory Mankiw (excellent), Glenn Hubbard (horrible), and Ben Bernanke (also excellent) -- missed the point, though Mankiw and Bernanke clearly haven't had much influence.  Bush would've move forward on these particular cuts, with or without them.

It's not that increased savings is bad.  Quite the contrary.  Americans need to save more.  But it's the working- and middle-classes that need more opportunity to save, and not through some moronic scheme to privatize Social Security.  That's how we could've pursued a Pareto-improving outcome in the future, by helping people gain access to the tools needed to "create" wealth.  (I wish economists could come up with a different term for this.  "Create" makes it sound like higher standards of living just appear out of nowhere.)

The upper-class in America already saves an enormous chunk of its income -- the kind of rates you typically find in Asian countries.  I suspect it's a similar story in Europe.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Fri Nov 11th, 2005 at 10:35:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Pareto-improving? You're so 19th century... Old school. Embrace Kaldor-Hicks! Bush's economic policy has resulted in a Kaldor-Hicks improvement because the wealthy, the corporate welfare queens and Halliburton could in principle make it up to the rest of Americans if they so chose. Aren't economists clever?

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 11th, 2005 at 10:42:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, I know.  It's sort of like the Supply-Siders, who failed to "bring back the magic," as Paul Krugman put it, and then claimed that they, in fact, had.  Or, as the Wizard said, "Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain."

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Fri Nov 11th, 2005 at 10:46:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Your point that Brown's Keynesian spending could do some good is valid, but it's been awfully timed, coming when spending was already otherwide stimulated by asset appreciation. It would be a lot more effective today, but is now constrained by the unavailability of budgetary room of manoeuver.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Nov 11th, 2005 at 10:53:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, there was this kinda light-hearted attempt at nitpicking on UK unemployment numbers. Since then, the issue of Incapacity Benefit has gone public in Britain, and the question of what to do about it is one of the government's current hot debates. (Blair and Blunkett were squaring off on this just before Blunkett resigned). So the picking has been entirely validated.

Briefly, a large number (around 3% of the working-age population) of the long-term unemployed in the UK left the labour market for sickness/disability benefit and are no longer counted in the unemployment stats. My beef is against the use of unemployment numbers as weapons in the non-stop "US/UK good, France/Germany bad" propaganda game. ("Just look at our low numbers, theirs are much higher, therefore their economies are failing etc...")

In fact, though, the UK may well have had the tight labour market that, as Drew says, wage growth suggests. But two contributory factors not generally recognized are the number of long-term unemployed taken off the market and supported at public cost, and the large-scale creation of public-sector jobs. I'm not knocking this, or suggesting Brown isn't a capable Chancellor; but under-the-radar Keynesianism it is.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Nov 11th, 2005 at 05:09:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not sure the US and UK should be paired against France and Germany.  The UK may have smaller government than France and Germany, but it's larger than the US, I believe, when you take regulations into account.  Not of the comparisons are as clear as they're usually made out to be, and I think people ignore culture too much, because economies do, after all, reflect the cultures they're a part of.

The truth is that there is little difference in government spending as a percentage of GDP in all four countries.  It's one of the reasons for why I can't take American Libertarians seriously when they bitch about "the hand of big gov'mint".  Government really isn't that big, even in Germany and France, which is fine by me, as someone who, I think like most people, only wants government to do what it must do for the sake of society's health and safety.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Fri Nov 11th, 2005 at 05:43:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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