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runs huge defecits like this for the next 5--10 years, it will be a problem.  But they won't.  The economy is growing nicely--producing higher tax revenues.  The Iraq war won't last forever--leading to a reduction in spending.  The country has run large deficits before--I think larger on a % of GDP basis, and it's adjusted.

And you don't think all of these non-Americans, you mention Asians, are pumping money over to America because they're dumb, do you?  Of course not.  They see a growing economy in America; they see a dollar that is weak by historical standards--so they're hoping that their investments in America will do well, and then if the dollar strengthens, when they bring the money back in their own currencies--they're hoping to make big money.  I'm not sure I would bet against them.

The sky is not falling in America.  In fact the stock markets are warming up over hear.  Might be a good time to put some of the bucks in the savings account, into the stock market--you may be able to squeeze a few more years out of your rock star life style in Holland.

by wchurchill on Mon Nov 21st, 2005 at 05:43:32 PM EST
as a <snark>.  i didn't know if your rock star comment was in jest, but i thought so, and was just playing off it.  welcome to the site.
by wchurchill on Tue Nov 22nd, 2005 at 12:03:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That the US Government announced last week it was going to quit publishing MP3 figures.  

As I understand it, by looking at the MP3 figures you can tell when the big players are toying with the markets to make them come our right, so apparently we are not supposed to know they are doing it.  Having the economy look good through the first half of 2006 seems to be the plan, and we are not supposed to notice how much fresh money is being pumped into the economy to keep the charade going.  

The logic here is obvious to anyone familiar with drug addiction:  When you are about to crash, snort another couple lines!

After the election in November, expect the wheels to come off.  

The Fates are kind.

by Gaianne on Tue Nov 22nd, 2005 at 06:17:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
They don't want double-plus ungood thinkers - c'est moi - noticing M3 is rising by 7.3% over last year while wages rose a dramatic (snark) 2.6% over last year.

The muse of poetry strikes:

Oh dear!  Where can the money be?
It's not going to wage power parity.
There is a slight haze of obscurity.
"Bubbles," his thumbs on the scale.

(OK.  Mayhap it's the 'Moose' of poetry.)

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 22nd, 2005 at 05:37:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Very good.  :D

The Fates are kind.
by Gaianne on Tue Nov 22nd, 2005 at 09:39:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
well I certainly don't share your optimism that somehow with a shrinking high-income tax base (due to irresponsible tax cuts on corporate profits and the super rich, which is where all the growth is), an again population, exploding military spending (if you think Iraq is the end of that road you're definitely an optimist) and a general malaise on the rest of the economy that somehow America is going to 'grow' its way out of the deficit. Serious economists have blown this argument off for a long time.

And I don't think anyone per se is dumb here, either the Americans living far beyond their means or the Asians who are financing it. But to assume that somehow they are doing this for good, far sighted reasons is incredibly naive I think. A far more plausible explanation is that they are doing it for the reason most of us do the things we do--it seems like the easiest thing to do at the moment to accomplish their goals.  

It is a fact that the japanese and chinese have been buying up billions of dollars in order to artificially keep their currencies lower in relation to the dollar so that their exports are not priced out of the market in the US. That can only go on for so long.

The proper, natural outcome for this situation--and there is wide agreement on this--is that the world is going to have to equalize somewhat. The US standard of living is unsustainable; this doesn't mean it will collapse, but it cannot go on the way it is, with perpetual, structural consumer and government debt. And it only makes sense that sooner or later the investor countries will skip the middle man (America) and start buying their OWN products.

by Lud on Tue Nov 22nd, 2005 at 04:28:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
disagree.  We'll just have to see what happens.  You of course should be shorting the dollar if you believe your theory--which I agree could be true.  but that's not my bet, and I'm long in growth stocks in America and Asian (non-Japanese) mutual funds.  It's the reason there is stock and currency markets--if everyone thought the same thing, there couldn't really be a market.  Good luck!
by wchurchill on Tue Nov 22nd, 2005 at 04:36:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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