You may disagree with the simplistic view that I lay out. But I still say that protection of dollar energy trading was a key factor in the US Administration's thinking on Iraq - especially given that it appears to have been Cheney driven with Oil companies in mind... You can't be me, I'm taken
In terms of long term strength, I'm just looking at productivity trends, growth, and the US position in what I think are key markets for the next 5 years--technology (IT), healthcare, and financial services. I for one like where the Dow is in terms of the last 5 years, and where the Dow is in terms of the very long term. I see it positioned perfectly for significant growth, but as you correctly state, others see doom and gloom. That's good--different opinions make markets work well. But actually I'm not trying to convince anyone of this, it's a forecast that obviously could be wrong--I only mention it because I find people think very seriously about economics before they bet their pocketbook, their retirement, their future--so you'll know I've thought about it--but still could be wrong. Since I wrote my growth diary on Sept 15, the Dow is up 2% ish, and the Nasdaq 5% ish (nasdaq has a higher perc entage of the growth stocks I like). Now my forecast was for 5 years, with ups and downs--so I'm not celebrating--but it's better than a stick in the eye.
Given that they could have a Euro Oil market if certain major producers switch from dollars, then of course they will find the right price to make a profit.
Traders cannot trade in markets that become defunct. So I don't think you quite understood the argument. You can't be me, I'm taken
Now I'm playing this for the med--long term, 5 years, and expect ups and downs,,,,but I am becoming more encouraged with my prognostication based on events this month.
CPI: +3.2% M3: +7.3%
The DOW is down 1.2% versus CPI and down 5.3% versus M3.
I concur both figures have problems. The CPI is notoriously a "political" estimate. But loss of year/year Purchasing Power needs to be estimated when analyizing investment returns.
