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and the alleged currency switch--very clearly written and explained.

thank you for the great word seigneuriage.  it may be deep in my old memory banks somewhere, but I had to look it up.  the good articles seemed to be in French, and Google translated, more or less.  my french is not that good to read directly and understand.

let me see how close we are in our thinking on this point, because like you said earlier, we sometimes talk past each other.  I agree seigneuriage is a benefit to the US.  but is it not an earned benefit?, that is dependent on the trust of the world in the long term strength of the US economy, and the ability of the US to appropriately manage its debt.  My economic history is a little weak, but I think Great Britain had this position of privlege many years ago, but their economy did not remain strong, and foreigners lost their trust in the ability of the Brits to manage their finances.  So over time, the market decided to remove this trust from the UK, and it ended up in the US.

It's a benefit to the US because as long as they have this trust, they can effectively borrow money, from their own citizens and the world, by simply printing money.  But the flip side of printing money is increasing the national debt, in the form of US Treasury notes.  Foreigners look at US 10 year notes today, and at this very second they can buy such a note which will pay them 4.461% per year, in dollars, for the next 10 years if they choose to hold it.  That is the market clearing price.  (Another diary maybe someday, but this is an incredible innovation in itself that has come with computer technology and well managed financial markets--it makes these financial choices available to you and me, the small guys, and not just the wealth barons.)

So what I'm trying to say is that the US provides a good investment for people outside the US.  They can invest in a stable currency and economy, rather than only having the option of investing in  their own country, and therefore, their own currency.  Why is it viewed as good?  Because the market which changes in real time, says that 4.461% is a good return if it's in dollars.  If the market doesn't believe that, they'll buy fewer notes, the interest rate will have to go up to clear the market.  So this system self regulates.

Traders can do this at anytime with other currencies.  Some traders are viewing the Euro as strong, and buying Euro's today as a good investment.  (I think someone pointed out that Warren Buffet recently disclosed a big loss by betting on the Euro.  On the other hand, many traders made huge gains by doing this during the dollars fall of the last several years.)  So the US has to earn this trust every day--to a very hard group of people, slick investment people who just want to increase their return.  They'd write off seigneurage for the US in a heartbeat, if they lost faith in the US economy, and the US management of it's debt.

If you borrow in your own currency, you let others take the currency risk, a great privilege.
So yes I agree with this, but it's a privlege earned every day, it can be lost, and it's a benefit to both sides.  

Am I in line with your thinking, and just saying it  in another way (some might say a longwinded way)?  Or am I missing something here?

by wchurchill on Tue Nov 22nd, 2005 at 12:10:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The valuation of the Euro seems to be very vulnerable to the latest political news in Europe. Nothing to do with the fundamentals.

Also, it is pretty obvious that the Pound has been a tad overvalued relative to the Euro for a while. The same retail item will often be priced the same numerically in Dollars, Euros and Pounds.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 22nd, 2005 at 12:15:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I've never seen that. 1.75 to 1 is a pretty big difference.
by Lud on Tue Nov 22nd, 2005 at 01:45:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It is trust earned. What a lot of people are worried about these days is that the USA are abusing this trust by taking on more debt than they should, thus threatening to weaken their own currency - and also the instrument used by others to trade and store value.

As Nixon's Secretary of Treasury said: "the dollar is our currency and your problem". We live withe this "problem" for so long as its collective benefits outweigh its costs. The USA are busily increasing that cost today.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Nov 22nd, 2005 at 02:59:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
rather the US wasn't skating so close to the edge.  I know we have different views on this US economy, and if yours prove to be correct, the US and my investment strategy is in trouble, so it makes sense you're more concerned than me.  If my assumptions are right, increased growth will increase tax revenues, start cutting the size of the deficit, and give the world increasing confidence--making me a little less worried than you.
by wchurchill on Tue Nov 22nd, 2005 at 03:20:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Increased growth increases the trade deficit, which is putting the US on the edge to a much greater degree than its government budget deficit.

What could turn the US into the world's greatest Argentina is the arrival of $100 per barrel oil.

by capslock on Wed Nov 23rd, 2005 at 08:55:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
not really true that increased growth increases the trade deficit.  Growth often means more exports, and more internal to the country business.  For example, china is growing like a weed, but obviously not incurring, or increasing a trade deficit.

Trust me, the US is not going to be an Argentina--maybe a UK loss of financial dominace that occured decades ago.  But there just is no logical analogy between the US and Argentina.  Just to test your belief in that concept, it means the dollar will absolutely plummet, so you should put a ton of your savings into shorting the dollar, and leverage that bet.  If you're right, you'll be a multimillionaire--but I wouldn't do it if I were you.

by wchurchill on Thu Nov 24th, 2005 at 02:05:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
WChurchill, what do you have to say to the IMF's warnings about the imbalances in the US economy, and its global consequences?

The problem with shorting and leveraging is that you may be able to predict the direction of a movement, but not its time scale. So you need deep pockets.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 24th, 2005 at 08:41:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
 or "seigniorage" in English. That may explain why you couldn't find any "good articles" in English!
by Matt in NYC on Tue Nov 22nd, 2005 at 11:20:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
thanks matt.  you were 100% right.  really helped me understand this better.
by wchurchill on Tue Nov 22nd, 2005 at 11:42:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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