In terms of long term strength, I'm just looking at productivity trends, growth, and the US position in what I think are key markets for the next 5 years--technology (IT), healthcare, and financial services. I for one like where the Dow is in terms of the last 5 years, and where the Dow is in terms of the very long term. I see it positioned perfectly for significant growth, but as you correctly state, others see doom and gloom. That's good--different opinions make markets work well. But actually I'm not trying to convince anyone of this, it's a forecast that obviously could be wrong--I only mention it because I find people think very seriously about economics before they bet their pocketbook, their retirement, their future--so you'll know I've thought about it--but still could be wrong. Since I wrote my growth diary on Sept 15, the Dow is up 2% ish, and the Nasdaq 5% ish (nasdaq has a higher perc entage of the growth stocks I like). Now my forecast was for 5 years, with ups and downs--so I'm not celebrating--but it's better than a stick in the eye.
Given that they could have a Euro Oil market if certain major producers switch from dollars, then of course they will find the right price to make a profit.
Traders cannot trade in markets that become defunct. So I don't think you quite understood the argument. You can't be me, I'm taken
Now I'm playing this for the med--long term, 5 years, and expect ups and downs,,,,but I am becoming more encouraged with my prognostication based on events this month.
CPI: +3.2% M3: +7.3%
The DOW is down 1.2% versus CPI and down 5.3% versus M3.
I concur both figures have problems. The CPI is notoriously a "political" estimate. But loss of year/year Purchasing Power needs to be estimated when analyizing investment returns.
