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I'm sorry that I don't have time to write a longer comment, but lacordaire is right that Asians are no longer buying lots of Treasury Bonds - over the last 6-12 months, that role has shifted to petrodollars out of London.  I believe that the Federal Reserve Bank's Flow of Funds report gives the details.  

The Asian central banks had a clear mercantilistic purpose behind their buying, but the motivation for this new money isn't as clear.  Are they reaching for yield?  After all, US Treasury Bonds yield 1 percent more than Eurozone bonds, or 3 percent more than Yen bonds.  Are they seeking security?  Maybe, but then why are they also buying corporate bonds and equities?  Are they paying protection money to keep the US Army out of their nice little kingdoms?  That seems unlikely, but stranger things have happened.

by corncam on Tue Nov 22nd, 2005 at 02:03:25 PM EST
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in a portfolio of US Treasuries, corporate bonds and corporate equities, presumably he is doing so to makie money.  Accepting your numbers, the interest rates are higher here, so for the fixed income portion of the portfolio he is getting a better return than elsewhere.  He obviously knows that future currency movements can help or hurt him, so he likely thinks that it's unlikely the dollar will devaluate more than 1% ish--if it does he loses the extra 1% of interest rate, and he may think the currency will appreciate, giving him a higher gain.  He likely also believe the US stock markets are undervalued, as I do, and sees that as a nice opportunity.

I would agree with that view on US equities.  I would also agree with the view on the dollar in the medium term--3 to 5 years.  I don't know what will happen in the next several years.  But I wouldn't be surprised if that is a real winning investment strategy over the next five years.

by wchurchill on Tue Nov 22nd, 2005 at 02:46:15 PM EST
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