It's very difficult to tell if these events will become more structured and if so, how and by whom. Even if I thought it desirable (and I don't), I don't feel that the French hard left is in much of a position to take charge.
So who's left? The Islamists? I may be wrong but they just don't seem to have or even want that kind of influence. Their game is more low key and long term. Sure they may view these events as an opportunity to recruit and convince but you certainly won't be seeing a fire breathing Imam leading any charges.
Organized crime might throw a little muscle into this. The more people hate the police, the more ineffective and baffled the police seems, the more street toughs seem to be (and are) in charge. However, OC in France is pretty local and is nothing like LCN is Sicily, so any organizing on their part would be small scale with specific local objectives.
To sum it up, I think the violence, will gradually die down, or at least leave the spotlight. It may get worse before since it's become a form of perverse competition with the score sheets being read every morning throughout the press.
How we deal with the aftermath of violence and the multi-faceted problems of the banlieue is the key political issue for which I have no quick and ready answers.
Cheers
It's going to be a mess and I can only see Sarkozy and Le Pen as winners. After all, the only winner of May'68 was De Gaulle when all was said an done.
May 1968
On 29 May several hundred thousand protesters led by the CGT marched through Paris, chanting, "Adieu, de Gaulle!" While the government appeared to be close to collapse, de Gaulle chose not to say adieu. Instead, after ensuring that he had sufficient loyal military units mobilized to back him if push came to shove, he went on the radio the following day (the national television service was on strike) to announce the dissolution of the National Assembly, with elections to follow on 23 June. He ordered workers to return to work, threatening to institute a state of emergency if they did not. The Events of June From that point the revolutionary feeling of the students and workers faded away. Workers gradually returned to work or were ousted from their plants by the police. The national student union called off street demonstrations. The government banned a number of left organizations. The police retook the Sorbonne on 16 June. De Gaulle triumphed in the elections held in June and the crisis had ended.
While the government appeared to be close to collapse, de Gaulle chose not to say adieu. Instead, after ensuring that he had sufficient loyal military units mobilized to back him if push came to shove, he went on the radio the following day (the national television service was on strike) to announce the dissolution of the National Assembly, with elections to follow on 23 June. He ordered workers to return to work, threatening to institute a state of emergency if they did not.
The Events of June
From that point the revolutionary feeling of the students and workers faded away. Workers gradually returned to work or were ousted from their plants by the police. The national student union called off street demonstrations. The government banned a number of left organizations. The police retook the Sorbonne on 16 June. De Gaulle triumphed in the elections held in June and the crisis had ended.
Notice how quiet Le Pen is being? You know he's enjoying every minute of this and waiting to cash in. For the next presidential elections, expect something like "you tried Le Pen "light" and got 11(15, 20... ?) days of intifada, it's time to vote for the real thing".
The socialists need to get their act together yesterday. Get a game plan, and more importantly get a good candidate. Leave Jospin in the mothballs where he belongs, he had his chance and got whipped...twice, didn't make to the second round last time. He can't convince the, admittedly unruly, French left to vote for him, end of story (he probably couldn't convince a drunk to have another whisky, that's the kind of charisma we're talking about). Get someone quickly (Royal? Strauss-Kahn? Hollande?...), back them fully and give them good exposure. Can it happen? Don't hold your breath.
The US war preparations against Irak led to the foundation of a European public consciousness. We witnessed for the first time that tens of millions of European citizens engaged in the active, spontaneous participation at demonstrations in all EU Member States. And something extraordinary happened: The participants at the huge demonstrations were from a variety of national, political and religious backgrounds. At the Brussels demo I saw folks from Holland, France, Germany, Luxemburg, the UK, Spain, Italy etc.pp. It was truly pan European. Poetically speaking it was that EU 'Europe' had found its popular core belief - its 'soul'.
This could have been the founding moment of the 'Europe of citizens', of its founding myth, of the 'European narrative'.
If the European socialdemocrats, socialist and labour parties had picked up that 'moment' it would have guaranteed a huge popular support and propelled us thru' the European constitution referenda. We know that they failed to do so, we didn't succeed to link the peoples will for peace with a political project to re-vive the European economy on a anti neo-liberal platform.
So we lost the battle for the constitution and remained empty handed with regards to a European alternative to the free market hooligans on the right.
The results of this failure can be seen now in France (and soon in Benelux, The Netherlands, Germany and Italy).
So yes, I see the kids movement as a highly political reaction to our European party leaders vanity and intellectual laziness to define a viable socialdemocratic, socialist and labour perspective which englobes the elements of peace policies and social progress in credible and compelling terms.
The social unrest will spread throughout Europe and crowd control and police repression ain't gonna be the answer to deal with it.
ET should begin to think about developing a European 'narrative'. We will need one to steer the social upheavel and to give it some meaningfull direction. Our current leaders are speechless (if not worse). "The USA appears destined by fate to plague America with misery in the name of liberty." Simon Bolivar, Caracas, 1819
It is depressing.
I guess we better concentrate on the LocustWatch project and try to broaden it to make it eventually become a European 'narrative". It will be an absolute first. A 'riot' so to speak. "The USA appears destined by fate to plague America with misery in the name of liberty." Simon Bolivar, Caracas, 1819
The state of the SPE is truly deplorable, they are dead in the water.
For now only this:
When I worked for the EP party group I was warned by friends not to get too close to the SPE. I followed their advice and they were right. The closest I ever got to the secretary general was in Costa Rica in a djungle hotel. I was playing chess with a LA share broker who told me that he had been playing chess with another fellow from Brussels until recently and who had also worked for the socialists. He then described this person to me. I knew him. He was on the run with some million $ of Craxi's illegal money from the Agusta helicopter affair, which had led to the killing of a Belgian political big shot. He later went back to Milan and did some time in Uccerdone prison. "The USA appears destined by fate to plague America with misery in the name of liberty." Simon Bolivar, Caracas, 1819
