1) $115 - Late '06 US bombs Iran, Kurds secede, and both Iraq and Iran oil production goes offline. Unlike during Katrina, other countries hold on to their strategic reserves.
2)Ends around $95
3)$14 high, $10 end - I agree with some of the other comments that there will be demand destruction in gas.
4)November 06. I think there will be a lot of tough talk before the election, but a strike only comes after. Shiites stop cooperating after the strike on Iran, and the Kurds take it as their signal to bow out of the grand coalition.