Personally, I don't believe that the dispute over the price of gas for Ukraine will escalate into a major disruption of supply to the EU. President Putin is a tough person, but he is much smarter than his predecessor, and far more pragmatic. Sure, he was upset, when his protégé Viktor Yanukovich eventually lost the Ukrainian presidential elections. Some actually expected a knee-jerk reaction, like support of regional leaders in East Ukraine threatening to declare autonomy. It didn't happen, because it was clearly a loosing bid, and Mr Putin knew that.

He definitely doesn't want this price hike to look too much like a political payback. Besides, in the event of crisis the public opinion in the EU may well shift towards considering Europe's reliance on Russian gas in its new energy strategy kind of dangerous. This could make the European ambitions of Gazprom less saleable.

I think Russia made its point, and now Gazprom and the Ukranian government will quietly resolve this dispute. The EU will be more inclined to speed up the construction of the Northern European Gas Pipeline. Basically, for some time Ukraine will be receiving gas it needs from Turkmenistan at $50 per 1,000 cubic meters.  President Putin will stay aside from that fuss, and even make comments that the Gazprom leadership could show more desire to reach an agreement...