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However, Robert Esser and Peter Jackson, the authors of the study, gave an interview to the Oil and Gas Journal with more details about their report. As we expected, some of their assumptions are very optimistic; for example, they are predicting increases of 1 million barrels per day in both Iraq and Iran, in addition to big increases in Nigeria and Saudi Arabia. For the non-OPEC producers:
What do they mean about Russia?? That it will grow by 2mb/d in 2005, and then by 1 mb/d per year until 2010?? That would mean a production level of 16 mb/d in 2010. Or that it will grow by 1 mb/d by 2010, having grown by 2 mb/d in the past 3 years (I thought it was slightly more than that)? In that case, that's just 1 mb/d more to 10 mb/d.
I also don't see an additional 2.5 mb/d from the Caspian. ACG will add 800,000 b/d in the best case, Karachaganak 200,000, Tengiz say 400,000, and Kashagan - well they'll be lucky if they have 400,000 b/d by then. The rest is too small to make up the rest.
And a decline of 500,000 b/d for the US. How realistic is that? In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
