The problem on the left is not so much the lack of decent people as that of the really nasty fracture between the "oui" and the "non" camps on Europe.

The "non" is basically the harder left; it incorporates traditional standard bearers such as the communists, the assorted trotskysts groups, and the "républicains" (sovereignists of the left led by Jean-Pierre Chevénement), but it also received the support of a good part of the socialist and green parties tempted by social utopia and a rejection of the market economy and free trade. Laurent Fabius, formerly associated with the right wing of the socialist party, has opportunistically embraced that camp and hopes to mobilise the left around him, starting from the left wing. The problem is that he will have to fight off other ambitious lefty socialists within the PS (socialist party), as well as the usual leaders of the hard left parties which are unlikely to give up their role without serious influence on the political platform.

The oui side, which can be described as the modernist wing of the PS (yes, my bias shows, I know) has clearly lost the electoral battle within the left during the referendum but still controls the apparatus of the party up to now. It has some decent electable candidates in Dominique Strauss-Kahn (former minister of the economy under Jospin in 1997-2001) or a couple others (the ever popular Jack Lang, Paris mayor Bertrand Delanoe - although the Olympics fiasco has dimmed his prospects, or slightly more lefty Martine Aubry. François Hollande, the uncharismatic party leader, and Lionel Jospin himself, could also be contenders.

There will be a congress in the autumn where the PS will decide which line to hold (Fabius vs Hollande, to simplify) and then there will be a year of jockeying for the various factions to push forward some candidate for the 2007 Presidential run.

I see several scenarios:

• Hollande prevails. A centrist candidate ends up being the official candidate of the PS (say Strauss-Kahn). The hard left has two options - go with all their candidates (Besancenot for the Trotskysts, Buffet for the communists, and a lefty socialist, whether Fabius or another), or unify behind a common candidate like Fabius. With two strong candidates, the winner is very likely to go to the second round, where the centrist would have a chance to win and the lefty one zero chance to win.

• The lefties prevail. The PS falls in disarray, with all the "oui" camp (like me) unable to follow that line. Fabius gets to be the official PS candidate, but is likely to face off the hard left candidates nayway, and a possible dissident centrist candidate (say Jack Lang or Bernard Kouchner, building on his personal charisma). The winner of this is likely to be François Bayrou, the candidate of the center-right and pro-European UDF. No candidate of the left will get to the second round in that option.

A lot depends on how the right behaves. Le Pen is going to be a candidate, and he is unlikely to get less than 16-18%, barring something really unexpected (health reasons). Bayrou is going to be a candidate, and he can expect to get 7-10% form the right, and a little bit more form the left depending on the above. Sarkozy will run in any case; the big question is whether Chirac runs or not. If Chirac runs, neither Chirac nor Sarkozy will get more than Le Pen, if he doesn't, Sarkozy will likely get 20-25% of the votes, maybe more.

Seen from today, the race is really open, but again, it will take a lot of effort, discipline and self-restraint, not the most shared qualities, on both sides to avoid having Le Pen in the second round.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes