Display:
As dvx has already replied, the CDU (which Angela Merkel is heading) have suggested to increase the VAT from 16% to 18%.  This is actually in their recently passed election manifesto, so it seems like it's a done deal.

The most vocal opponent to this increase is Guido Westerwelle, head of the FDP (Free Democrats or Market Liberals), who has said that there will be no tax increases with them in the administration.  He argues that this is unecessary and would stiffle consumer activity, thus hurting the economy.  Now, since it is very likely that the CDU will form a coalition with the FDP it seems that there is a conflict waiting to happen.

It is, however, very interesting that a lot of people in the FDP agree with the increase and the Westerwelle hasn't commented on the recently passed manifesto (he's on vacation, but that hasn't stopped him to comment before).  So my take is that all this talk is to position the FDP as the party that won't do tax increases, which is a very popular position in Germany, but will cave in the end.

As for the increase itself, I think it is sound policy if it goes along with radical slashing of unnecessary subsidies.  The problem in Germany is that the state is practically broke.  I think I read in a recent Spiegel that we pay 25% of the budget as interest for loans, but that number seems awfully large, so I might be wrong.

Also, it is important to remember that while the CDU wants to increase the VAT it wants to decrease other taxes.  I'll try to get a better picture of their manifesto, before I'll comment on that.

by hesk on Mon Jul 18th, 2005 at 03:51:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Perhaps the thing I'm most curious about...and most concerned about...is what will be the new direction of the German government, if in fact Merkel is elected? Will Germany stay European focused, or will it try to move closer to the US and the British? Probably hard to tell at this point, but what are your thoughts about this?

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia
by whataboutbob on Tue Jul 19th, 2005 at 07:17:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Merkel is in France today, for what is described as a quasi-State visit. She will meet Chirac, Villepin and Sarkozy. The CDU is keen to show that she will also have a good relationship with France. They put themselves in the footsteps of Kohl: nothing can happen in Europe will happen without France and Germanu on board, but good relations with others are important. Expect a less anti-American tone, but no substantial change within Europe. Neither Merkel nor Sarkozy will radically alter their countries' diplomacies and they will work with each other as a prority.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Jul 19th, 2005 at 10:19:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks Jerome...that's helpful, and a relief, to hear. I know, I shouldn't be so worried about it...but after all these articles I'm starting to read that shows the ideological attacks of the American Neo-Cons on Europe, I just hope the "political elites" here don't cave in. There's a lot good going on...

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia
by whataboutbob on Tue Jul 19th, 2005 at 11:03:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Increasing VAT while decreasing other taxes is likely to be socially regressive in its impact.  The consumption tax affects everyone in the society.  I concede that I'm not aware of whether German VAT is applied to food or other necessities such as clothing, utilities and rents.  But assuming at least some of these are caught, those people who have low, and particularly also fixed, incomes will find a higher proportion of their income is eaten up by the increased VAT on necessities compared to the proportion of high income earners' incomes.  

A few questions: will pensions be adjusted to compensate for the VAT increase under the CDU plan?  What about self-funded retirees - ie those living from interest/dividends on accumulated capital?  The value of their savings and purchasing power is instantly devalued.  Will the increased VAT fund cuts in business taxes or income tax? - more regressive still!

by canberra boy (canberraboy1 at gmail dot com) on Tue Jul 19th, 2005 at 11:44:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You're right that decreasing other taxes while increasing the VAT can be socially regressive in its impact but there are a few things to consider:

  • I think that rent isn't covered by the VAT at all and most Germans live in rented appartments.  Same with medical insurance, IIRC.

  • Food and some other basic necessities are taxed with a reduced rate of 7% which will not change.

In my case that means that the VAT increase only affects about a third of my expenses, and I'm a student, so I don't particularly qualify as rich.
by hesk on Sat Jul 23rd, 2005 at 10:20:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:
Login
. Make a new account
. Reset password
Recommended Diaries
Occasional Series