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To be fair to Colman, Chaboud, cited in  a Scotsman article dated the 12th July, uses the words "appear" and "probably" when he "suggests" that the explosives were of Balkan military origin. Basically, Chaboud was making speculative comments which were not empirically or evidentially based. Given that Chaboud has an agenda ( it was Gerbouzi wot dunnit! ) - he is no more reliable a source than any other.

Ironically, the Scotsman sidebar leads to today's report that the investigators have still not identified the explosives used in the bombings. Likewise the FT cites unnamed intelligence sources - that appear to be just plain wrong about this.

The reality is, that poring over the contradictory press reports just illuminates how much noise there is propagated in the press, and how hard it is to discern the signal.

by londanium on Tue Jul 19th, 2005 at 08:00:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I do note however that Chaboud has been in London working with Scotland Yard.  Obviously like I said in my intro, we'll have to wait until the investigation is over but it does seem like he was eager to spill some beans and was in a position to see the info on said beans.

Why he would do so falls into the realm of the political... I'm curious however if "Balkans" is a codeword for "Czech Republic".

Pax

Night and day you can find me Flogging the Simian

by soj on Tue Jul 19th, 2005 at 08:29:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Why Czech Republic? Is there something going on there we should be aware of? I can't keep track any more.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Jul 19th, 2005 at 08:38:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In light of Londanium's comments, I might be on the wrong track here.  Czech Republic manufactured an explosive called Semtex, which for many years did not have any chemical tags added so it was virtually undetectable (while being transported).

A lot of it was sold to Libya during the Communist era, when the Arab states were "friendlies".  

Pax

Night and day you can find me Flogging the Simian

by soj on Tue Jul 19th, 2005 at 09:50:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I've heard of it. There's still rather a lot of it knocking around Ireland and the UK: the IRA got loads of it, and I don't believe much was actually used (relatively).
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Jul 19th, 2005 at 09:52:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'd contextualise Chaboud's comment in the following way: The French intelligence and security services have been well pissed off with the UK for a good ten years now regarding the large numbers of Algerians that they would rather see "off the streets". The UK, operating on old "gentleman's agreement" principles, has resisted French pressure to lock up or deport lots of people, and there has been a history of conflict over this issue.

Whilst he may have been in London assisting the investigation - he's not a ground-floor forensics investigator; and his language was hedged in such a way in the article for it to be clear that it was a speculative take.

There's also the prior event paradigm to take into account: seeing events in London in the light of events in Madrid, whilst "natural" - I certainly did to begin with - often leads down the wrong track. I doubt that Chaboud is any more immune to this than most of us - and I would certainly characterise him as someone likely to have a political agenda that he is seeking to advance.

I think that references to the Balkans would not include the Czech Republic. Specifically, I would guess that Chaboud is referring to the Former Yugoslavia or Albania, but I couldn't narrow it down any further than that. If he's referencing smuggled Balkan explosives then it's likely that he is making the obvious point that people and drug smuggling networks can also be used to smuggle explosives.

by londanium on Tue Jul 19th, 2005 at 09:11:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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