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hesk, I think you forgot non-voters as a very potent source - disillusioned ex-SPD-voters. Also, I wouldn't just add up the previously measured WASG and PDS popularities. WASG also polled very low because voters couldn't be sure that they pass the 5% hurdle.

On the other hand, I agree it is too early to tell how they will poll in the actual elections about two months from now, and the underperformance of PDS governments (and Gysi's own underperformance in the capital Berlin) can be played out against them.

I don't understand your surprise at the voters in the East. In 2002, Schröder won largely by drawing away voters from the PDS (with both the peace message and the august flood showmanship), one can suspect that after Harz IV, those returned to the PDS - whatever the performance of state governments. (And given that in the last dozen or so state elections, the federal-level politics seemed to play the chief role instead of local issues, maybe the latter won't matter that much in the end.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Jul 20th, 2005 at 02:07:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
BTW, if you want to follow polls - here is a nice summary of all major German polls; for those not speaking German:

On the top, "Gesamt" is all (the entire country), "Ost" is East, "West" you know I guess, "Bundesländer" is (individual) member states. On the left, "Veröffentlichung" is date of release (not of polling, unfortunately), "GRÜNE" is the Greens, "Die Linke" means The Left, "Sonstige" is others. If you click on the pollsters' name, you can compare the numbers in previous polls.

Note, pollsters have party allegations too, for example, Allensbach is close to the CDU, so is Emnid to some extent, while Forsa is close to the SPD.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Jul 20th, 2005 at 02:51:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I agree that you can't simply add the popularities of the WASG and the PDS, because the WASG previously polled very low.  If you look at the numbers right now, with the Left Party at 12% national and 31% in the East, they'll have to have about 8% in the West.  I find that number quite high, considering that it's as high as the Greens and the FDP are currently polling and they are quite established by now.

As to the numbers in the East, I think they are inflated because of current events (all the talk about the Left Party in the media) and because the other parties have not started their campaigns which will likely feature successful attacks against the new party.

But you're right, disillusioned SPD-voters are the target for the new Left Party, they're the reason for its existance after all.

by hesk on Wed Jul 20th, 2005 at 03:13:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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