A bit of background:
Also, the fact that the PDS is part of the administration in 3 states in the East will likely be against the new Left Party, because it's performance there is not very good.
BTW, I'm a bit surprised that the new Left Party polls so good in the East. I'd like to see that broken down by state.
(Note, that this is my personal opinion and in no way based on facts. I'll try to remedy that.)
Anyway, as to your choice quote, about not divulging what's gonna come after the election. That's been the strategy for years by all parties and at least compared to the 2002 election I think that those who are paying attention know what to expect much better.
And while I'm at it, what are your views of the CDU, since you seem pretty informed and level-headed about politics there... "Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia
The other parties are anxious about the Left Party for two reasons I guess:
However, my views on various parties are very unspecific right now, I'm basically following my gut. By now all parties have their program finished and I'll try to make some time to take a better look.
On the other hand, I agree it is too early to tell how they will poll in the actual elections about two months from now, and the underperformance of PDS governments (and Gysi's own underperformance in the capital Berlin) can be played out against them.
I don't understand your surprise at the voters in the East. In 2002, Schröder won largely by drawing away voters from the PDS (with both the peace message and the august flood showmanship), one can suspect that after Harz IV, those returned to the PDS - whatever the performance of state governments. (And given that in the last dozen or so state elections, the federal-level politics seemed to play the chief role instead of local issues, maybe the latter won't matter that much in the end.) *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
On the top, "Gesamt" is all (the entire country), "Ost" is East, "West" you know I guess, "Bundesländer" is (individual) member states. On the left, "Veröffentlichung" is date of release (not of polling, unfortunately), "GRÜNE" is the Greens, "Die Linke" means The Left, "Sonstige" is others. If you click on the pollsters' name, you can compare the numbers in previous polls.
Note, pollsters have party allegations too, for example, Allensbach is close to the CDU, so is Emnid to some extent, while Forsa is close to the SPD. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
As to the numbers in the East, I think they are inflated because of current events (all the talk about the Left Party in the media) and because the other parties have not started their campaigns which will likely feature successful attacks against the new party.
But you're right, disillusioned SPD-voters are the target for the new Left Party, they're the reason for its existance after all.
