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who is in power. They will sell us the oil because they need the money just as badly as we need the oil.

Thanks for the info in any case. We should certainly follow what's going on, but I have serious doubts that any of this really matters.

I know it's a lost cause, but here I stand.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Aug 1st, 2005 at 05:39:18 PM EST
the oil/money trade will continue until you get enough windmills up to kill the econs (never) or the oil runs out (I'll be dead).

But the question is will the money be used to support fundi Wahabis or not.  If the conservatives consolidate power and crack down on a restive population, all hell could break loose.

Saudi has a problem with not enough work and too many rules for a growing number of highly educated younger people who've been exposed to Western lifestyles.  The royals can fly to London or where ever when they want to drink and misbehave.  The new middle class is stuck under the thumb of the religious police.   Someday that place is going to boil over and if the new regime puts Pat-Robertson-in-a-robe in charge, it will be hastened.

by HiD on Mon Aug 1st, 2005 at 08:18:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, I am saying explicitly that we should not care if they have fundamentalists in pwoer in these countries. As far as I am concerned, this is the best way to vaccinate their populations against their folly (as in Iran) and I don't see any other way to do it.

The only thing we need to say is that any State-sponsored terrorism (financing, encouraging, hosting or tolerating terrorists) will be treated as an act of war. Full stop.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Aug 2nd, 2005 at 04:31:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Using your standard we would be at war with Saudi now.  Ditto Iran, Syria, Indonesia, Malaysia, and others.

I'd rather turn our backs and spend the economic pain on energy alternatives rather than bullets.  We need to go there eventually anyway.

I don't want us to interfere, but rooting for moderates to progressives from the sidelines isn't going to hurt anything.

by HiD on Fri Aug 5th, 2005 at 04:02:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In terms of oil, more or less you're right - the Saudis will continue to sell it to all its regular customers.

However the sponsoring of extremism, not just in Afghanistan and Pakistan but even in the United States (wrote an entire article about it which you can find here).

That extremism leads to terrorism, directly or indirectly, and this is obviously a major issue that affects us all.  A Saudi prince funds a madrassah which inspires a terrorist to blow up London and then Australia implements ID cards or a "Patriot Act" type law.  It's a vicious circle.

However, I'm in full agreement with all your energy diaries, which can be boiled down to this "find another energy source and quick!".

Pax

Night and day you can find me Flogging the Simian

by soj on Tue Aug 2nd, 2005 at 01:48:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
See above. Treat State support to terrorism explicitly as an act of war, but don't meddle in any other way. That might concentrate a few minds.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Aug 2nd, 2005 at 04:32:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I agree with Jérôme. Despite their diverse ideological inclinations, all the members of the Saudi royal family have a common interest: staying in power. The current system guarantees it. They know quite well that any change is likely to wreak havoc in the Saudi society, unleashing forces they couldn't manage. It is even more likely if the change is seen as a coup. Given the fact that Abdallah bin Abd el Aziz is in his eighties, I think they will wait until he dies and Sultan takes over...

And yes, they will continue to finance fundamentalism, which is the breeding ground for terrorism. They will do so not because they are ideologically committed to fundamental islamism (some of them are), but because, doing so, on one hand they maintain their legitimacy and their pivotal role as guardians of the holy places and on the other hand they buy the support (or at least the neutrality) of a great number of fundamentalists who would otherwise turn against them.    

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet

by Melanchthon on Tue Aug 2nd, 2005 at 04:59:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You're correct so long as rational actors remain in power. I'm not sure that some of the potential victors from a Saudi civil war would count as entirely rational a fanatically anti-Western regime could cause massive disruption, if only for a short time.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Aug 2nd, 2005 at 05:05:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
usually makes you rational real quick - or justifies a campaign à la Afghanistan - a useful precedent in that respect.

We only need to make clear that we will not tolerate failed States. Any other kind of government we can tolerate and deal with rationally - and no compromission.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Aug 2nd, 2005 at 05:16:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What's the going rate for glow-in-the-dark oil?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Aug 2nd, 2005 at 05:24:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Who is going to use nukes?

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Aug 2nd, 2005 at 05:35:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm wandering off into crazy fantasy speculation land here, but let's pretend that there was a civil war in Saudi and that I, a committed anti-westerner from a religious cult that considers all and any means justified in battling the decadent west on behalf of my god, seize power. The first question is how do I hold on to power against attack from the West. I'd move nukes into the oil fields and threaten to destroy them if anyone attacks. The Afghanistan solution is not without risks. Hell, if my cult is mad enough I might consider the oil the fundamental cause of the sins in my country and not be too bothered if I destroyed it. This is a rational policy in terms of my world view. I don't even need real nukes: all I have to do is dirty a substantial part of the oil.

I don't know what would come out of a Saudi civil war, but your assumption that it'll have little or no effect on the outside world seems over optimistic.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Aug 2nd, 2005 at 06:07:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This is a rational policy in terms of my world view.

Someone who understands that rational is relative and not =reasonable!

As for your comment, I agree completely. Economic interests aren't on top of everyone's priority list.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Aug 2nd, 2005 at 06:45:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I understand what you mean better. Yes, civil war is the greatest (and pretty much the only) danger to oil production, but it is rare that it has lasted long enough to really disrupt oil production (witness Algeria, Iran for examples with different outcomes)

My question is - can you have the combination of (i) some fundamentalist having access to the nuclear bomb and (ii) not being in power at the same time.

Because using the nuclear bomb, even within its own country, is a guaranteed trigger for retaliation, whether nuclear or more targetted, against that leader/ship controlling the nukes.

If they are rational enough to have the organisation to actually control a nuke, they will be rational enough to try to keep in power. The "fundamentalist"leaders don't go kill themselves, they send others to do it for their political goals. fundamentalism is really a way to control society and to keep power. The fundamentalist and actual believers don't get close to power, because then they are not pious anymore.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Aug 2nd, 2005 at 06:47:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
They don't have to intend to use it to put it in place. Then maybe it doesn't take that much to get it used. I realise it's a pretty extreme case.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Aug 2nd, 2005 at 07:08:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
An extremist in charge of Saudi Arabia would have a lot of disposable cash.  How many loose Soviet nukes are there floating around the former Soviet satellite states?  I had thought there were a lot, and the staff minding them are increasingly hungry, as they are paid less and less regularly.
by guleblanc on Tue Aug 2nd, 2005 at 03:58:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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