I agree with londanium's reasoning, but I would add the winding down of the US involvement in Iraq as the US military sees the handwriting on the wall and the anti-war movement picks up a little steam. This sends some fears into the market as they really see how messed up the situation is.
There will be a new wave of attacks on oil installations in Iraq as this begins and as the insurgency realizes that creating oil uncertainty is easier and more effective than killing US and Iraqi forces.
The Bush saber rattling vis-a-vis Iraq will die down, but the nervousness in the markets that it is likely to create will remain.
This will be countered by a serious "don't worry" PR push by big oil in order to calm the situation. It will be sufficient to slow the progress of the climb.
This is never mentioned in the news-that there is really an attack somewhere at least every other day it seems. The last entry was on August 4-with 3 bombs going off at Kirkuk installation I believe. It also sometimes takes several days for updates on the site. "People never do evil so throughly and happily as when they do it from moral conviction."-Blaise Pascal
