My argument is: I think there is currently a speculation element in the rally, and it will take some falls from speculation highs before we reach and pass $100 due to real supply problems (but that'll happen in a few years).

We have recently some refinery breakdowns in the USA. Does this remind only me of the California 'Energy Crisis'? Is it outside the realm of possibilities that oil companies are manipulating prices, feeding the speculation bubble this way?

_{*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.}