I think oil price will hit $40 before $100 (just a dip before the next leg up), but we will be at $100 in the next 1-5 years. That price level got us to create CAFE standards and push energy conservation in 1980 and will again. Maybe Jimmy Carter can get out the sweater for old time's sake.
In the case where the SUV was leased, then the car reverts to some subsidiary of the manufacturer, and they will want to push the thing back out on the market.
If you drive 25K miles/yr, dumping a 16 MPG pig for a 30 MPG vehicle saves you 730 gallons/yr or $2200 at $3/gallon and prob a bit more on insurance/tag for smaller vehicle. $200/mo is a decent motivator for people to just go ahead and realize the loss on the big pigs and move on.
Have you seen how cheaply the car companies are dumping new production on the market? I finally broke down and bought a new truck when the AC died on the old one. I had been holding out hoping someone would make a hybrid light truck. Got a Nissan Frontier with 4 cyl and a stick (26 MPG with air on at all times -- damn hot here in summer). Only cost $13.5K brand new. Only the second new car I've ever bought but I couldn't find a used one as cheap as new once you factored in the price of the miles already driven.
Article from OGJ (bible of petroleum industry) stating that US deliveries of petroleum in July were down 3% due to high prices....
