Regarding the debate, 70% think that Schröder will win and 80% say it will have no effect on their voting decision. No wonder that Merkel doesn't look forward to it.
The huppla about the debate was that Merkel only wants one debate, while last year we had two debates. Last year was also the first time ever for a TV debate, so everybody assumed that there would be two debates this year as well, one for the public TV channels and one for the private ones. When Merkel was asked why she only agreed to one debate, she cited "scheduling difficulties." Riiight. Last week wasn't really kind to her.
On the flipside, it looks likely that we'll have a debate between the three smaller parties which is new and promises to be much more exciting.
Translating the graph in hesk's link:
Which coalition would be best for Germany?
Within the CDU and CSU:
Within the Greens:
Within the Left Party:
Also, I fear, that the SPD doesn't really appreciate the Greens, although it was the strong showing of the Greens in 2002, that enabled them to continue the coalition then.
Same with the Greens, but your interpretation sounds plausible, too.
The problem is inherent in the poll. First, the question can be interpreted in two ways:
SPD voters favor a grand colaition because they see this, rightly or wrongly, as the only way to stay in pwoer.
CDU voters would see it as a failure in the election.
Same thing for the small parties, who don't want to be left out (although some there probably take the strategic view that a grand coalition can only favor those outside, i.e. them, at the next election) In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
Always the pessimist, I'd also contemplate the Bush script: create expectations that Merkel will be disastrous in the debate, and if she barely hangs on, she has outdone expectations - and up go the sympathy points. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
