Display:
Not bloody likely. FDP and Greens are natural competitors - put them in a coalition and both of them are forced to fight for survival. So these alliances are extremely unstable. Not obvious what the FDP would stand to gain, even if it looked as though another few years in the oppositon might be a serios threat to them as well (which it doesn't, I think, as they have been doing relatively well on the state level by their standards recently).  

Schroeder's end game is a last-minute, come-from-behind surprise victory. I don't expect that to happen, but it's not impossible. The SPD is almost within striking distance now, and the news coverage of the home stretch continues to be nothing short of disastrous for Merkel.

If you can't convince them, confuse them. (Harry S. Truman)

by brainwave on Sun Sep 11th, 2005 at 05:04:25 PM EST
Btw there is a historic precedent for an unexpected come-from-behind victory of the SPD in federal elections - Willi Brand pulled that off in 1972. I haven't seen anyone explore the parallel yet; but then again, I don't have that much access to German news media and blogs from this side of the Atlantic.

If you can't convince them, confuse them. (Harry S. Truman)
by brainwave on Sun Sep 11th, 2005 at 05:25:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
2002 also was a come-from-behind victory by Schröder.
by Saturday (geckes(at)gmx.net) on Sun Sep 11th, 2005 at 05:43:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In 2002, SPD and CDU had been going neck-and-neck in the polls for weeks before the election. It really wasn't that much of a surprise anymore on election day (at least not to me).

If you can't convince them, confuse them. (Harry S. Truman)
by brainwave on Sun Sep 11th, 2005 at 06:16:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
agreed. Absolutely not likely. That's why Gabriel's move is some sort of kindergarten tactics.
by Saturday (geckes(at)gmx.net) on Sun Sep 11th, 2005 at 05:42:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Gabriel's been stirring the pot. His target are potential SPD voters who might be swayed provided they can be convinced that there are plausible scenarios for Schroeder to stay in office.

If you can't convince them, confuse them. (Harry S. Truman)
by brainwave on Sun Sep 11th, 2005 at 06:21:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:
Login
. Make a new account
. Reset password
Occasional Series