Display:
First a plug-in for my post on the four other recent polls.

Today Forsa, the polling institute associated with SPD, released its latest:

CDU/CSU 42% (+-0)
SPD 35% (+1)
Greens 7% (+
-0)
FDP 6% (+/-0)
Left Party 7% (-1%)

Hence the two blocks unchanged:
CDU/CSU+FDP 48%
SPD+Greens+Left Party 49%

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Sep 12th, 2005 at 06:30:14 AM EST
Also, the direct mandates prediction has been updated on the Bundestagswahl 2005 site on Saturday. The prediction for seats (on the main page, right), with the so-called overhang mandates in parantheses:

SPD    214    (4)
CDU/CSU 258    (5)
Greens    43     
FDP    43     
Left P.    49   



*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Sep 12th, 2005 at 06:43:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Explanations:

On the map,
strong/light color: certain/weak lead
blue: CDU/CSU lead
red: SPD lead
green: Greens lead (look at central district of Berlin)
purple: Left Party lead

Overhang mandate:
In the German system, each state has a certain number of election districts, but twice as many seats to be distributed among parties. Normally, the latter is done according to votes on party lists. That is, for example, if a party wins 40% of the vote and 2 direct mandates in a state with 10 seats, two more people drawn from the party list will enter parliament. However, when a party wins more direct mandates than its share in the list vote, the Parliament increases accordingly and the difference is called overhang mandate. I.e., if say a party wins 5 direct mandates with 40% of the vote in a state with 10 seats to fill, there is one overhang.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Sep 12th, 2005 at 07:04:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It is interesting to compare the secure seats between CDU and SPD, there seem to be more "secure" CDU/CSU seats than SPD - and equally more advantage SPD, than Advantage CDU/CSU, of course, one has to consider the population in those areas as well.
by PeWi on Mon Sep 12th, 2005 at 08:41:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:
Login
. Make a new account
. Reset password
Occasional Series