European Tribune - Comments - Countdown Germany: Day -1.5

Countdown Germany: Day -1.5 | 18 comments (18 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Countdown Germany: Day -2 (none / 0)

Well, you are much more in the know...though I still believe it is going to be a Schröder upset. Will soon know.

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia

by whataboutbob on Sat Sep 17th, 2005 at 04:07:35 AM EST

Re: Countdown Germany: Day -2 (none / 0)

I am a little afraid to bring up the hope that Schröder will win. But I sure hope the limb you mentioned in another thread will hold.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Sep 17th, 2005 at 04:12:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

doubtful (though not impossible) (none / 0)

Here are the facts, as far as I'm aware of them:

The SPD had Big Mo up into this week. That seems to have stalled now, judging by the Forsa and Allensbach polls. I can't find the MoE of these polls anywhere, but it's hard to dismiss the fact that both show the same trend.
The pundits have been predicting for weeks that the SPD would close the gap up to the lower or mid-30s percent range, as disgruntled but ultimately loyal SPD voters grudgingly return into the fold. Schroeder, on the other hand, predicted that the SPD would surge right back to 38%, which is were they ended up in the 2002 election and which would give them about parity with the CDU. But I'm afraid that the polls this week are more consistent with the pundits' story than with Schroeder's.
To make matters worse, the last three days have seen a major onslaught of bad publicity for Schroeder's government. The excreable Bild, Germany's largest worthless rag, err, tabloid, always happy to shill for the CDU, alleged that Schroeder's finance minister, Hans Eichel, has prepared a list of painful budget cuts to be implemented immediately after the election. Eichel denies this and is threatening to sue Bild, but Merkel & Co. have absolutely run with this. The real problem is that this business reminds a lot of voters of what happened three years ago, when Schroeder's government hid damaging data on the economy and the government's budget until after the election. This credibility gap has contributed a great deal to the SPD's recent losses in state elections, and this is the worst possible time for the SPD to have voters see their suspicions of them reinforced.
On the upside, though: this week's polls also show that 35% of the electorate are still undecided, and that a majority of voters no longer desire a change in the government. And the combined impact of these two data points is not to be underestimated. German voters are extremely "conservative", in the sense that it takes a lot for them to vote a government out of office. The fact of the matter is, they've done this only once so far - in 1998, when Schroeder came to power. Every other change of government was caused, not in the voting booths, but by the parties forging new governing coalitions. Schroeder's predecessor, Kohl, was able to stay in office for so long because even though he was never popular (except after the reunification in 1990), voters always in the end decided to stick with him, until 1998. That may work for Schroeder as well. Like you said, we'll see.

If you can't convince them, confuse them. (Harry S. Truman)

by brainwave on Sat Sep 17th, 2005 at 12:24:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Countdown Germany: Day -1.5 | 18 comments (18 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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