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This election could produce a left-wing majority in the Bundesrat yet result in a Grand Coalition of CDU/CSU+FDP+SPD.

There is no way that the Linke/PDS would be brought into the cabinet, but if a minority government were feasible in Germany, you maybe could have SPD+Green even if the two parties were short of the absolute majority.

by Moosa Man on Sat Sep 17th, 2005 at 01:28:20 PM EST
First off, it's the Bundestag, not the Bundesrat, that's being elected on Sunday. The CDU will retain a majority in the Bundesrat no matter what. Secondly, a minority coalition is by all means consistent with the German constitution. The Linke could help elect Schroeder and later vote with or against the red-green coalition as they see fit, without actually entering the government. The thing is, though, it's not going to happen. Schroeder has vowed he won't accept such a deal, and the SPD would get absolutely crucified at the polls for decades to come if he were to break that promise.  

If you can't convince them, confuse them. (Harry S. Truman)
by brainwave on Sat Sep 17th, 2005 at 02:03:19 PM EST
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As brainwave points out, there is nothing that would bar a minority government.  Furthermore, if the Linke chose to vote in such a government, it would be extremely difficult to force it out against its will since in Germany the only binding no-confidence votes are 'constructive' ones - i.e. ones that simultaneously vote in a new government.

On the other hand, while I found Schroeder's justification for early elections dubious - i.e. that due to dissatisfaction on the left of the coalition he didn't have a working majority, that would absolutely be the case with a minority govt.  In practice I far prefer a right wing govt or a grand coalition than a left wing one that is largely powerless, and that's what a minority govt would be.  The existing right wing veto power in the Bundesrat would be joined by a formalized far left wing veto power in the lower house.  

I also think it could turn around and hurt the SPD (and Greens) politically as centrist and center left voters decide that they prefer a mainstream right wing coalition to a one combining the mainstream and extreme left.

by MarekNYC on Sat Sep 17th, 2005 at 03:19:19 PM EST
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Thanks for the elaboration. (And, oh, man, I can't believe I said "Bundesrat"! I do know better.)

I should have been more clear on what I was arguing. Of course, brainwave is right about the procedure that could elect a minority government. But then Schroeder would be openly dependent on the Linke. So the requirement for an actual election of the government in parliament means, in effect, you cannot have a minority government (even if it is not actually against the constitution).

This is very different from the situation in many other parliamentary governments where the cabinet takes office and is ASSUMED to have confidence until proven otherwise.  That matters, in terms of political fallout, because such a government has not been openly put in power by a far-left party that most of the public disdains.

The parallel would be some of the past Scandinavian minority social-dem governments that have held power because the far left would abstain on a no-confidence vote called by the conservatives after the government was formally in office.

by Moosa Man on Sat Sep 17th, 2005 at 04:54:52 PM EST
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A minority government would be formed under an agreement that the Linke would elect Schroeder and back him in the future in case it comes to a no confidence vote. They could do this without actually being a part of the government. Of course Schroeder's government would immediately fall as soon as the Linke would withdraw their support, but that's in no way different from how a governing coalition is dependent on all parties in the coalition. An SPD minority government "tolerated" by the PDS (the predecessor of the Linke) has been tried at the state level (in Sachsen-Anhalt) and there's no reason it couldn't be done at the federal level. I really don't see any difference between Germany and other parliamentary democracies in this regard. But, like I said, it ain't gonna happen.

If you can't convince them, confuse them. (Harry S. Truman)
by brainwave on Sat Sep 17th, 2005 at 08:36:08 PM EST
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Well, empirically, we hardly ever get minority governmens when a formal investiture vote is required (as it is in Germany). We often get them when investiture votes are not required (as in Scandinavian countries, and recently in New Zealand).

The theoretical reason is as I tried to articulate above: Sometimes parties may be willing to cooperate somewhat informally, but not if there must be a formal vote resulting in a public declaration of mutual dependence.

by Moosa Man on Tue Sep 20th, 2005 at 01:43:52 PM EST
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