have a look here it gives you the wandering number.
newrly 1mio moved from SPD to Linke.
but what those figures really show are, that the CDU really is the big loser, (as if nobody had noticed that before) they lost out to FDP 1.1 and to the non voters .6 mio that's where they lost it. their lost at their base. and they gave the Links party the second biggest group of additional supporters
Essentially Schröder pushed Lafontaine and his followers out and there were some nasty talks about it from both sides.
Now Schröder was hit back. About all the votes the SPD lost between the last and this election did go to Lafontaines Left Party.
Lafontaine is old Union school left, Schröder is law school left. Moon of Alabama
I think the mandate shows that Schroeder should form the government, because overall the CDU/CSU has not gained an increase in votes.
The Greens (whatever the second tier guys want there) should not form a coalition with the CDU, because there is no way that Fischer could be seen as going into a coalition with the CDU and the local green party leaders in some parts of Germany should not have the deciding voice of how the Greens form a coalition, IMO.
The FDP should be represented in the government because of their increase in votes. The fact that Westerwelle doesn't want to go into a coalition with SPD seems to be pretty strange to me. May be he should sincerely reconsider what he is doing.
So a clear majority coalition would be a (even redder) red green yellow coalition. May be the Germans should call it the Rainbow Coalition. :-) The fact that the SPD lost his votes to the more left Linkspartei is a mandate at least for Schroeder to form the government.
I mean the FDP guys can counterbalance the redder than reds and the greens can take care of their business according to what they always have stood for, which at least on the environmental issues were not compatible with CDU's conservatives business interests. Let's the FDP in a coalition with the greens and reds do the business of representing the free markets business interests, and not forcing the Greens into a coalition with the CDU together with the FDP.
I am pretty sure that the Germans didn't send out a mandate to the Greens to go into coalition with the CDU/FDP. That's a construct that would not reflect the votes properly, IMO.
But who am I to know.
The Left Party is (at least this time) not ready to be a stable partner for a government. There are tensions between the two parties forming the Left Party, the PDS from the east and the new WASG from the west. The PDS has had enough time to work out how to handle the hard hard left factions in their party, something the WASG has not done yet. And Lafontaine is mostly about himself and quite content to just protest loudly from the opposition without having to actually do something. They are not interested in governing and they are certainly not an attractive partner for any coalition.
Here's hoping that "The Left Party" perish and realizes that they have to stick to SPD or the Greens and reform from within.
Nader and Lafontaine are enemies of the left.
Lafontaine did try reform from within and was kicked out. Without these left parties there would be no left side at all. They are the ones that keep the others from drifting further to the right.
You may be tired of them, but then do you want to ignore 4 million voters? Moon of Alabama
Yup. What do we have here. In the East a party that was de facto created by the ex ruling party cadres who regretted the end of their dictatorship. That they get their votes from those who are understandably upset about the problems with the post-unification economy doesn't change that basic fact.
In the West, a hodgepodge fronted by Lafontaine who in addition to wanting a rollback of the reforms also has discovered a new found affection for extreme right wing xenophobia and racism.
51% of voters did indeed vote for one of the left wing parties. But are you really so sure that all of those voters genuinely want a red green red coalition? There is no way of knowing but I'm pretty certain that if Schroeder Fischer went into the campaign saying they were open to a coalition with the Linkspartei, we'd have been watching champagne corks popping at Adenauer Haus last night.
PS - There seems to be an immplication that ignoring a significant voting block is somehow wrong - why? If the NPD were to get into parliament would you find it strange or wrong that the CDU refused to work with it?
It is quite anti-democratic from large party supporters to advocate a democratic system where only their parties exist, even (or especially?) with reference to governability or their dislike for the smaller parties' agenda or persons. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
Well, just as well, I could say: here's hoping that the SPD perishes and their voters realize that they have to stick to the Left party or the Greens and reform from within. Kerry and Schröder are enemies of the left.
(However, I don't really wish the SPD to die, and dislike egomaniac Lafontaine just as much as Kerry and Schröder.) *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
Minority governments are possible and in northern europe they are even quite frequent. So the Left does not need to do much - just sit there and tip on Schröders shoulder whenever he gets to neolib. Moon of Alabama
It would be nice if a red-green government could continue to govern, it's just not realistic under the current circumstances.
In this election campaign, Schröder used the old Adenauer election theme of "No experiments" successfully against the CDU, and a minority government with "pick-and-choose" majorities would certainly be extremely experimental.
After all, this is what Schröder did himself. The SPD blocked Kohl's tax reform plans in the Bundesrat with the SPD majority, then once in government (and once Lafontaine was dumped), they implemented something very similar. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
