CDU/CSU 40% SPD 30% Linke 10% FDP 10% Greens 10%
But the data this poll was supposed to reflect would have really looked more like this:
CDU/CSU 28% SPD 21% Linke 7% FDP 7% Greens 7% UNDECIDED 30%
And this is exactly what the pollsters should have published.
One more point: I'm highly sceptical of the theory that the massive swing away from the Union was mostly caused by loyal CDU/CSU voters who went for the FDP in order to prevent a grand coalition. First off, this doesn't make too much sense. The only way "lending" votes to the FDP could have helped prevent a big coalition was if the FDP was in danger of falling short of the 5% threshold. But that danger was never apparent in the polls! Secondly, only half of the votes the Union lost actually went to the FDP. Infratest-Dimap projects that the CDU/CSU lost 1,110,000 voters to the FDP and a combined 1,100,000 votes to the Linke, "others" (i.e., mostly, Neo-Nazis), and above all to non-voters. In my opinion, what happened here was quite clearly a no-confidence vote against Merkel. If you can't convince them, confuse them. (Harry S. Truman)
That may well be. I have the memory of a long line of elections in which the losing side, which also trailed in the polls, sought to keep up hopes by pointing to a large number of undecideds (and various vactors why they would like this party more) - only to end up with the undecideds splitting the same way as the opinionated. But this years' German elections were a truly complex choice for voters.
But the data this poll was supposed to reflect would have really looked more like this: ... UNDECIDED 30% And this is exactly what the pollsters should have published.
Fair point! (Actually, this is done in polls in Hungary, because the undecided and refuse-to-answer 'fraction' was always high.)
loyal CDU/CSU voters who went for the FDP in order to prevent a grand coalition. First off, this doesn't make too much sense.
You assume all voters to be as rational as you or me :-) But, it can be rational too: if you are a loose supporter of a right-wing government rather than a staunch CDU/CSU voter, you may think that if a Grand Coalition comes, it is better to have a strong FDP as opposition. At any rate, on election night, ARD showed that support for a grand coalition fell from around 40% to 20% while support for black-yellow changed the opposite way since the last poll, just at the same time as there was the CDU to SPD swing.
I agree it wasn't just the CDU/CSU to FDP swing, in fact that's what I wrote of below the fold. Regarding the Infratest-Dimap voter migration figures, I have to ask whether they concern voter movements in the last week - or voter movements since the 2002 elections. (I suspect the latter.) *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
In my opinion, what happened here was quite clearly a no-confidence vote against Merkel.
That sure played a role in the CDU slump over the last few months and after the TV debate, but in the last few days? On second thought, it very well could: in the undecideds' minds. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
