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At least The Economist's cover story of this week means that the consensus is not that it will be Bernanke's fault if it all goes pear-shaped during his first couple of years at the helm. That's good for him and should free his hand to take some bold measures if that's what he thinks he needs to do.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jan 18th, 2006 at 06:03:38 AM EST
I did not quote the bits of the Economist on Bernanke, but their message was basically that Greenspan seemed at least aware of the mess he is leaving to Bernanke (he has indeed been dropping hints for a while, even if, shamefully, he has not acted on them), but that Bernanke considers all these worries to be bunk and prefers the very instruments that will worsen things.

It's not a reassuring read.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Jan 18th, 2006 at 08:40:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Bernanke's sole purpose seems to be preventing deflation.  Most of his well known work is based on the subject.  If the US were not running up so much debt right now, it would have the option of raising rates and using fiscal policy.  Alas, we're in Bush World, where stupidity is a given and the only crime is sex.

I'm not sure how he'll handle it.  Hopefully he won't jump up to raise rates too high.  But, then again, he does need to get the housing bubble under control.  Can we re-vote or something and have Gordon Brown and the BoE instead of the Republicans and Greenspan, and start again from 2000?

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Wed Jan 18th, 2006 at 08:46:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'll stipulate that the BoE seems to have managed the housing bubble better so far, but I am not optimistic there either. Personal debt levels are also at record levels in the UK, and stagflation is still very much a possibility.

As we discussed in another thread a while ago, it is very much possible that, in a symetrical twist to today's conundrum, long term rates will go up when short term rates are brought down again, triggering a deep vicious circle of slower growth.

Form my perspective in the banking market, I can tell you that banks are beginning to do really stupid stuff. Any downturn will have massive consequences on many companies, and on the health of the financial sector, leading to retreat, investment collapse, and tight spending by all, accompanied for the weakest by bankruptcies.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Jan 18th, 2006 at 08:58:44 AM EST
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Talking about banks doing stupid stuff... My American bank (who still hasn't figured out I don't have any US income any more, nor live there) just doubled the limit on my credit card... I think they're trying to see it I'll bite... Not a chance: I'm about 1 month away from being debt-free ;-)

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jan 18th, 2006 at 09:10:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I was kidding, though I do think the UK has handled the situation far better than America.  Your points are all well taken.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Wed Jan 18th, 2006 at 11:37:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm counting on (read: hoping for) Bernanke to get tough about asset inflation and bring new ideas to the table.  He's a good economist and knows what he's talking about.  But it will also be his job to tell Congress and the White House that the party's over, and that it's time to get serious about the budget -- which, for one thing, means getting serious about a war that is going to cost the US over $1 trillion, according to Joseph Stiglitz.

Those are less relevant to the current situation, but Bernanke will be a necessary voice.  As far as what to do about the current situation, I don't know.  It may be true that this is simply a "midcycle slowdown," but I have trouble buying into that.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Wed Jan 18th, 2006 at 08:41:12 AM EST
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