Russia does not have the upper hand. If the gassupply disruption lasts more than a couple of days, Russia's reliability will be compromised, and its ability to borrow money on future receivables (i.e. the expectation of steady revenues over many years under stable contracts) will be damaged - and they vitally need that ability, and Gazprom knows it. In good times, like today, sure, they can borrow easily, but in troubels times like 1998-2001, it was the ONLY way they borrowed ANYTHING. The gas business is a very long term business, you cannot afford to lose trust for a temporary commercial advantage. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
This is about who gets the loot. This is one of the juiciest, and most discreet, bits of loot for Russian and Ukrainian officialdom. As I write in the other thread, I suspect that Yuschenko has tried to clean up the Ukrainian side of this and both the Russians and the Ukrainain oligarchs who used to profit from this are trying to prevent that, in an unusually public way. The Russians are playing a very dangerous game, because if the Europeans see them as using the gas deliveries as a political weapon, they will hurry to find alternatives, and you'll see LNG terminals or Mediterranean pipelines for African gas financed and given priority rather than Baltic pipelines. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
