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I wouldn't bet on the financial markets sleeping much longer.  The one great thing about the financial markets is that investors are betting with large sums of their own money, so the incentive to make smart predictions is there.  The markets are going to be the first signal to the politicians that we're headed for the wall.

The future is going to be very hard for people in suburban areas, as you've implied.  (Thankfully, I hate suburban and rural areas, so I'll stay near public transportation in the cities.)  That is, of course, depending on the state of renewable energy.  But I would look for increasing urbanization, if renewables move slowly, in the future.  That, however, could bring up the possibility of even more problems.

It's a bit frightening to hear of the BNP being at the event.  The far right does have a tendency to perform very well in elections during tough times.  It also has a nasty tendency to start wars.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Jan 22nd, 2006 at 11:42:49 AM EST


In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Jan 22nd, 2006 at 11:51:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The suburbs are screwed, but I worry about access to ffod in urban areas, as it needs to be transported from the countryside. Also, we might se monocultures collapse as rural areas will need to diversify their output in order to be more self-sufficient.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jan 22nd, 2006 at 11:56:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, I don't know much about the structure of commodity market investment, but the evidence from other investment markets seems to somewhat contradict your thesis.

What I am saying:
The majority of investment is undertaken by people investing other people's money. Thus, their performance horizon is set by bonus schemes and the like and is on the order of 3 months to 1 year.

This pattern has so far held up very well in the oil market, where there is a lot of energy and analysis devoted to short term issues (c.f. Nigeria and Iran at the moment) and trying to judge the timing and length of these disruptions. Very little investment flow has been concerned with longer term issues, despite being pointed up by lots of sources.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Sun Jan 22nd, 2006 at 02:47:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think investing for longer horizons involves rolling futures (replacing contracts with longer-dated ones as they expire) which is inherently risky and eventually unsustainable.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jan 22nd, 2006 at 03:32:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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