So China and India demand will probably grow but not as much as espected.
Regarding elasticity of oil. this is exactly my point, nothing is gonna happens until an inelastic break-down happens. So, the moment demand diminishes it will diminish a lot. Think about all the redundant demand in the US, or int he possibilities of India and China not to develope a huge private transport system...
It could go the other way and make China, Japan US and Europe go through a huge recession.. but it can also be a mild recession or just a change in the priorities in the development of China and India, together with a reduction of the deman in US of around 30% and in Europe of around 10%.
A pleasure I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude
We'll need much more brutal prices changes to have an impact on oil consumption. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
I really hope that this will be the dynamics. But I could be wrong
