Love to have a discussion with you about that. There is a small detail in the article that I would like to mention. The author spends quite a lot of time explaining the problem of the production of oil, the fact that all the refiniries and all the new capacity is not being built. He puts that as something horrible...
Well, I happen to believe that this is the key for a more or less smooth transition.
If no more refiniries are built the price of oil will increase sooner (maybe around five-ten years) than because of a pure oil peak. In a way this is a vital bottle-neck for the transition.
In a way, oil prices will reach around 90$ somewhere within the next five years. Then, with a very little investment we will be able to reduce the demand by getting rid of the waste use (mainly stupid SUV cars and other excesses). So, these five-ten years will be our saviors because we will have a constant offer for a decade that will allow us to sustain the economy in the middle of the changes.
Beside that, I have been preparing a diary about the cruel number and frankly, the key variable is oil for the personal displacement with private cars... I will develop more on that in a future diary...so I am not scare since I have no doubt that eventually cars can be forbidden.
So, basically I think nothing will happen until oil does not hit the 90$ (100 $ if it is in a couple of years) no matter what we do..and then we will see a constant demand and offer of oil (at around 80 million barrels per day).
The world will wake up and the solutions will be there, just ready for the governemnt and the industries to implement: saving at home, solar at home and Wind, nuclear energy, tidal and probably coal if necessary, for the grid plus public transport some biofuels and a lillte bit of gas/oil and within 20 more years, more electricity to generate hydrogen.
A pleasure I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude
As we've seen in the past year, oil demand is very unelastic: prices have tripled, and yet demand has been growing at a record pace. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
So China and India demand will probably grow but not as much as espected.
Regarding elasticity of oil. this is exactly my point, nothing is gonna happens until an inelastic break-down happens. So, the moment demand diminishes it will diminish a lot. Think about all the redundant demand in the US, or int he possibilities of India and China not to develope a huge private transport system...
It could go the other way and make China, Japan US and Europe go through a huge recession.. but it can also be a mild recession or just a change in the priorities in the development of China and India, together with a reduction of the deman in US of around 30% and in Europe of around 10%.
We'll need much more brutal prices changes to have an impact on oil consumption. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
I really hope that this will be the dynamics. But I could be wrong
As you say it will be a really interesting decade. "A agarrarse los machos".
Again, I do NOT say that it WILL be smooth, but it certainly CAN be smooth. 10-15 years are enough for building wind power , nuclear , develope the solar at home, insolate houses, get rid of inefficient cars, improve efficiencies in the chemichal industry and use the first easy alternatives for oil in the production of plastic, construction of a complete public transport system, and a railway system for the movement of goods and commodities...
A real huge change....
Take the case of Spain for example. We will increase wind production more, keep the nuclears until we obtain 33 % gas/coal, 33% nuclear 33% wind+hydro. We will need to hurry up a little bit more than expected. We will really have to invest a lot on trains and generate a real spanish rail network. And eventually we will be able to reduce the oil consumption by 50% during this period with biofuels, more efficient cars , transport of goods by train even some gas-oil transformation...then we need the jump to hydrogen in the next two decades using wind solar hydro nuclear and coal to obtain it...so it can be even easy...but again it can also very messy.
