A pleasure I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude
As we've seen in the past year, oil demand is very unelastic: prices have tripled, and yet demand has been growing at a record pace. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
So China and India demand will probably grow but not as much as espected.
Regarding elasticity of oil. this is exactly my point, nothing is gonna happens until an inelastic break-down happens. So, the moment demand diminishes it will diminish a lot. Think about all the redundant demand in the US, or int he possibilities of India and China not to develope a huge private transport system...
It could go the other way and make China, Japan US and Europe go through a huge recession.. but it can also be a mild recession or just a change in the priorities in the development of China and India, together with a reduction of the deman in US of around 30% and in Europe of around 10%.
We'll need much more brutal prices changes to have an impact on oil consumption. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
I really hope that this will be the dynamics. But I could be wrong
