The point with the Countdown is that any unexpected event can trigger big price increases, and have indeed in previous occasions, in the context of an upwards trend (see graph above).
None of the crises predicted for this year have taken place yet, so the brutal spike that would accompany them is yet to be seen, but the upwards trend is still with us.
So you may find the whole exercise silly, but we'll see. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
The bad news (or good, depending on your point of view) is it looks as though today's prices are here to stay, possibly through much of next year.
But don't expect $100 a barrel But that doesn't mean prices are going to spike again soon. The biggest reason not is that stockpiles are near record levels and fall is what experts call the "shoulder months" - the time between strong summer demand from driving and air conditioning and winter's heating needs. Basically, there's not much to move the market. Come 2007, investments that have been made in production, thanks to the recent high prices, could start to come online and boost supply.
The biggest reason not is that stockpiles are near record levels and fall is what experts call the "shoulder months" - the time between strong summer demand from driving and air conditioning and winter's heating needs. Basically, there's not much to move the market.
Come 2007, investments that have been made in production, thanks to the recent high prices, could start to come online and boost supply.
or 15 minutes after an al Qaeda attack on Ras Tanura.
whichever comes first.
