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I plugged those poll figures into the BBCs seat calculator for the 2005 election. This is not an exact estimate, particularly as there will be boundary changes before the next election (which will favour the Conservative Party slightly).

It is interesting that the best result for the Conservatives comes on their lowest share of predicted vote. First past the post strikes again.

Brown Labour 34% 276 seats
Conservative 42% 327 seats
Liberal Dem. 15%  15 seats
Others        9%  28 seats

Reid  Labour 30% 232 seats
Conservative 40% 336 seats
Liberal Dem. 19%  48 seats
Others       11%  30 seats

J'hsn Labour 33% 265 seats
Conservative 41% 323 seats
Liberal Dem. 16%  28 seats
Others       10%  30 seats

by Gary J on Tue Oct 17th, 2006 at 08:48:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
First past the post strikes again.

That does tend to happen, are any of the English consitituencies multimember districts? I know that the Scottish parliament employs several multimember districts?

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Tue Oct 17th, 2006 at 11:31:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Unfortunately the House of Commons is the last stronghold of the traditional British electoral system. It uses exactly the same single member, first past the post electoral system as the US House of Representatives.

Proportional representation systems of various kinds have been introduced for other elections in the UK (like those for the Scottish Parliament).

Blair failed the test of real reform in the House of Commons voting system, as in so many other areas, because he surrendered to the forces of reaction and narrow party advantage.

by Gary J on Wed Oct 18th, 2006 at 06:27:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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