You are right on the politics on this one Drew, and the Republicans have dealt themselves what is likely to be a lethal blow.  Here are some comments from the Chicago Tribune, which I like to look at to get a sense for what mid-America is thinking about:

A Time magazine poll released on Thursday found that two-thirds of Americans aware of the page scandal believe Republican leaders tried to cover it up. Fox News reported that internal Republican polling indicates the party could lose as many as 50 seats in the House in the Nov. 7 elections, giving the Democrats control.

An AP/Ipsos poll showed that half of likely voters say the Foley scandal will be "very or extremely important" when they vote. By nearly a 2-1 ratio, voters say Democrats are better at combating corruption.

It looks like a perfect storm for the R's--the incident is horrible, questions of mishandling and cover-up are being legitimately raised, and with the timing so close to the election, it seems unlikely the event will fall off the voter's radar screen before voting day.

Only the Democrat's penchant for messing up a good thing would seem to stand in the way of a major victory for the Democrats.