At this point, I'd guess it is Royal 50% Strauss-Kahn 30% Fabius 20%
So it could go anywhere from here. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
Royal is probably close to a first-round clear victory, however.
And it is not clear all Fabius first-round votes would go to DSK in the event of a Round Two play-off.