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I am not particularly interested in the linear Leontief model of general equilibrium, but in the analysis of the economy into processes. For one thing, the Peak oil hypothesis seems to me like a statement of nonlinearity.

Anyway, the equation

oil extraction: (capital) + (skilled labour) + (machinery) + (oil fields) -> (crude oil)
is not to be interpreted as a linear equation. '+' means "with" and '->' means "produce(s)". It's like a non-stoichiometric chemical equation such as
(oxygen) + (hydrogen) -> (water)
I am not saying how much of the reactants produces how much of the products and I am not even saying that defintie proportions apply. The analogue of
O<sub>2</sub> + 2 H<sub>2</sub> -> 2 H<sub>2</sub>O
with the coefficients involves quantifying the productivity of the factors of production.

One of the interesting insights that allowed Leontief to make a useful model is that he reversed the flow of the "production" equations/processes. Instead of asking "how much of the output can be produced given the inputs?" which, if the quantities are not right will result in some of the inputs being left over, he asked "how much of (input) is needed to produce one unit of (output)?". This is the inverse of the productivity of the input, by the way. The cool thing is that, given the inputs, how much and which outputs arre produced is an indeterminate problem, and not all the inputs may end up being used; but, given the outputs, you know exactly how much of the inputs has been used.

This is why actually none of the equations you has written really is a correct interpretation of how to turn the "process equations" into linear equations. But, then again, all this is true of chemical reaction equations. The symbols '+', '->' and the coefficients have the same meaning. The 1/2 in

(1/2) O<sub>2</sub> + H<sub>2</sub> -> H<sub>2</sub>O
means that "it takes 1/2 mole of the (oxygen) input to produce one mole of the (water) output". It does not mean that the amount of water produced is a linear combination of the amount of hydrogen and oxygen present.

So, there is a linear model at the end, but it is not obvious from the presentation of the "process" equations, not even if the "productivity" (stoichiometric) coefficients are given.

As an aside, I think this is clear why this was an insane choice of ancillary topic in the course I was assisting. Maybe there is a diary in there where I pick apart college level mathematics education in the US.

Anyway, the assumption of linearity is implicit in the question "how much of (input) is needed to produce one unit of (output)?", but you can of course replace that with a nonlinear function. I am more interested, however, in the "process equations", which might be represented as a directed graph (with nodes representing processes and arrows representing inputs and outputs).

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Nov 18th, 2006 at 04:08:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I am more interested, however, in the "process equations", which might be represented as a directed graph (with nodes representing processes and arrows representing inputs and outputs).

H'mmmm.

What you need is a Neural Net.

by ATinNM on Sat Nov 18th, 2006 at 04:28:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's not a neural network, it's a flow network (with conservation laws).

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Nov 18th, 2006 at 04:52:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Isn't working out stability criteria a complete pig of a problem?

If the model isn't linear then presumably it's pretty much unstable, almost by definition. I suppose a subset of small problems might convege towards something resembling equilibrium. But won't a reality-sized model that assumes time-based relationships between inputs and outputs wobble chaotically all over the place?

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sat Nov 18th, 2006 at 08:05:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If the model is convex it's stable, almost by definition. Linearity is just a red herring there.

I agree, though, that as soon as you introduce time and, more importantly, delays, you get an entirely different order of complexity. Delayed feedback is really, really nasty in that respect.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Nov 18th, 2006 at 09:34:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm glad to hear that we're not talking about a small patch of linearity here, and chemical equations are of course a good example of another of the many uses of "+".
'One' + 'two' = Onetwo, and so on. On the other hand, the case a hand is obviously not stoichiometric, and small variations in the inputs will indeed produce linear changes in the outputs, in a very reasonable model.

Perhaps I should actually break down and look at Leontief's methods. But since I heard that he treated "technology" as a scalar input, I've had a disgust toward the topic.

...Hmmm... Google doesn't think that "process equations" have much to do with "Leontief" (10 hits)....Further digging suggests that Leontief was indeed saying what you and I have trouble believing he'd say:

The neoclassical production function is an explicit function

    Q = f(K,L),

where Q = Quantity, K = Capital, L = Labor...
Leontief, the innovator of input-output analysis, uses a special production function which depends linearly on the total output variables....

Widipedia: Input-output model

I'm puzzled.

Words and ideas I offer here may be used freely and without attribution.

by technopolitical on Sun Nov 19th, 2006 at 04:34:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The "Neoclassical production function" post-dates Leontief by at least 20 years, so the wikipedia article is an attempt looks like an attempt at deducing the Leontief model from general neoclassical principles, with partial derivatives and the whole works. It looks just like the kind of dreadful stuff Paul Samuelson would do. I'm looking at it from a different perspective. The article does say
The inimitable book by Leontief himself remains the best exposition of input-output analysis. See bibliography.
Maybe I should try to get ahold of that. Drew should have easier access to it through his university library.

The wikipedia article also says

Despite the clear ability of the input-output model to depict and analyze the dependence of one industry or sector on another, Leontief and others never managed to introduce the full spectrum of dependency relations in a market economy.
in other words, the program is too ambitious to be practical. For instance
Irving Hock at the Chicago Area Transportation Study did detailed forecasting by industry sectors using input-output techniques. At the time, Hock's work was quite an undertaking, the only other work that has been done at the urban level was for Stockholm and it was not widely known. Input-output was one of the few techniques developed at the CATS not adopted in later studies. Later studies used economic base analysis techniques.
This economic base analysis sounds like a simplification of the Leontief model for tractability, though it appears to have been developed independently. That Leontief was too ambitious to be practical did not prevent people from coming up with even more general (and presumably more intractable) models
In 2003, Mohammad Gani, a pupil of Leontief, introduced Consistency Analysis in his book 'Foundations of Economic Science', which formally looks exactly like the input-output table, but explores the dependency relations in terms of payments and intermediation relations.

...

In a technical sense, input-output analysis can be seen as a special case of consistency analysis without money and without entrepreneurship and transaction cost.

Anyway, it does seem like economics is indeed much harder than chemistry or ecology as I discussed with TBG on a parallel thread.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Nov 19th, 2006 at 04:49:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
OK, I'm de-puzzled. I was reading the relationship backward, and the reverse direction makes perfect sense. It's saying that the amount of each kind of stuff required is the sum of the amounts required for each of the consumers of that stuff. (The flow of stuff is in the opposite direction from the arrows you showed, which corresponded instead to the direction of demand.)

Words and ideas I offer here may be used freely and without attribution.
by technopolitical on Sun Nov 19th, 2006 at 04:53:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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