AROUND the chancelleries of Europe and the dining tables of Brussels' Eurocrats, officials sip exquisite wines and pore over battle plans to rescue and revitalise a dormant EU and offer it an opportunity to determine a viable future or fade into pathetic irrelevance. Strangely, prospects are bright for both scenarios. If Europe seems to be on extended vacation, it's because the `pause' envisaged by Jose Manuel Barroso, the European Commission president, has lost its way even as he struggles to sort out the institutional reforms that the EU has been crying out for ever since the EU constitutional treaty was blocked by French and Dutch `No' votes in the referendums. The deadlock between the member states has now extended to a `pause' to enlargement as well. There will be no more admission of new members after Rumania and Bulgaria. `Enlargement' has now become a jittery word. It brings forth equally jittery responses such as `absorption capacity', implying that new members will be sucked into the system and vanish, or at least need to be painfully digested. The member states know that there is a backlash against the inexorable enlargement process, an "enlargement fatigue", especially in founder member states such as France. .... But the current European constellation seems too much like a bunch of blinkered horses expected to perform with different riders in order to emerge with a reliable road map charting Europe's trot into the future. Let's begin with Gordon Brown, the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, widely expected to be prime minister by 2008. Brown is a known Eurosceptic and is likely to accept a new one only if it were to be so modest that it would not need to go to a referendum in the UK. The greatest unknown here is the outcome of the French presidential elections. The issues behind the French `No' against the constitution last year continue to fester: gears of globalisation, free movement of labour and capital. The only candidate who has dared to take on European issues head-on is Nicolas Sarkozy. He wants a mini-constitution that would not need to go to a new referendum. In addition, changes to the farm budget would be likely to come into effect only in 2013 (the end of the current seven-year budget) when French net receipts from the CAP would be dwindling.
If Europe seems to be on extended vacation, it's because the `pause' envisaged by Jose Manuel Barroso, the European Commission president, has lost its way even as he struggles to sort out the institutional reforms that the EU has been crying out for ever since the EU constitutional treaty was blocked by French and Dutch `No' votes in the referendums. The deadlock between the member states has now extended to a `pause' to enlargement as well. There will be no more admission of new members after Rumania and Bulgaria.
`Enlargement' has now become a jittery word. It brings forth equally jittery responses such as `absorption capacity', implying that new members will be sucked into the system and vanish, or at least need to be painfully digested. The member states know that there is a backlash against the inexorable enlargement process, an "enlargement fatigue", especially in founder member states such as France.
.... But the current European constellation seems too much like a bunch of blinkered horses expected to perform with different riders in order to emerge with a reliable road map charting Europe's trot into the future. Let's begin with Gordon Brown, the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, widely expected to be prime minister by 2008.
Brown is a known Eurosceptic and is likely to accept a new one only if it were to be so modest that it would not need to go to a referendum in the UK.
The greatest unknown here is the outcome of the French presidential elections. The issues behind the French `No' against the constitution last year continue to fester: gears of globalisation, free movement of labour and capital. The only candidate who has dared to take on European issues head-on is Nicolas Sarkozy. He wants a mini-constitution that would not need to go to a new referendum. In addition, changes to the farm budget would be likely to come into effect only in 2013 (the end of the current seven-year budget) when French net receipts from the CAP would be dwindling.
Europe continues to grow faster, and create more jobs, than America. <...> Just six years ago, 81 percent of America's population was actively engaged in the work force, compared with 76 percent of Europe's. Now that gap is down to 1 percent. In other words, around 80 percent of both American and European 25- to 54-year-olds are gainfully employed. Says John Schmitt, senior economist at the Washington, D.C.-based Center for Economic and Policy Research: "The argument is that European countries should be basket cases [when it comes to creating jobs], but they're actually doing better than us."
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Just six years ago, 81 percent of America's population was actively engaged in the work force, compared with 76 percent of Europe's. Now that gap is down to 1 percent. In other words, around 80 percent of both American and European 25- to 54-year-olds are gainfully employed. Says John Schmitt, senior economist at the Washington, D.C.-based Center for Economic and Policy Research: "The argument is that European countries should be basket cases [when it comes to creating jobs], but they're actually doing better than us."
The article notes some downsides:
Of course, not everything is looking up in Western Europe either. Some countries are still unable to supply enough jobs to keep pace with the even faster growth of the population, as a result of unprecedented levels of immigration from Eastern and Central Europe. In Britain, unemployment hit a seven-year high last month even as the total number of people with jobs--31 million--hit an all-time high. The apparent contradiction is due largely to the fact that Britain is coping with its biggest influx of foreign workers to date--1.5 million last year, equivalent to 5.4 percent of the employed population.
But the article is mainly full of upsides.
In particular:
- Today, the three prime industries driving Europe's jobs engine are software, life sciences (like hospital systems) and alternative energy technology. [i.e. industries of the future] - The European Commission expects the upward trend to continue. Last week, EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia predicted that the EU would create 7 million new jobs by 2008. Germany's manufacturing industry, packed with highly skilled engineers, is thriving in everything from cars to microchips. Unemployment there dipped below the psychologically significant 10 percent mark for the first time in four years last month. - In Spain--where unemployment fell to its lowest level since 1979 in the third quarter of this year--construction companies building up the coasts are doing so well that they now account for 12 percent of the economy.
- The European Commission expects the upward trend to continue. Last week, EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia predicted that the EU would create 7 million new jobs by 2008.
Germany's manufacturing industry, packed with highly skilled engineers, is thriving in everything from cars to microchips. Unemployment there dipped below the psychologically significant 10 percent mark for the first time in four years last month.
- In Spain--where unemployment fell to its lowest level since 1979 in the third quarter of this year--construction companies building up the coasts are doing so well that they now account for 12 percent of the economy.
So, economically, it doesn't seem to me that Europe is on an "extended vacation". Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.
The problem, in the UK (like the US and perhaps everywhere else), is that you have papers like the Daily Mail that enjoy much higher circulation than real newspaper like the FT and the Guardian, and so they are naturally seen more as the "voice of the people," even though only a small fraction of Britons actually read them. It's the same story with FauxNews. At the maximum, two million people might watch Fox on a given half-hour time slot. But we already know those people are insane, and they didn't matter, since they were, at most, 1/35th of the mid-term electorate. They'd never vote our way, anyway. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
In Spain--where unemployment fell to its lowest level since 1979 in the third quarter of this year--construction companies building up the coasts are doing so well that they now account for 12 percent of the economy.
unemployment fell to its lowest level since 1979 in the third quarter of this year
strikes me as an upside. Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.
