Wilders is actually the left's useful idiot. VVD and CDA will never dare take him aboard in a coalition and he takes up 5 seats which might otherwise have gone to one of their parties.
All of these parties combined currently poll for 76 seats in a 150-seat parliament (peil.nl). But SGP and all the hard-right parties are not coalition material.
I expect (or hope) a lastminute meltdown of SP in favour of the PvdA, and a prime-minister Bos. But more on that when nomad has written his piece on the Dutch political Left.
BTW, I forgot: what are the lower limits of entry to the Dutch parliament? *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
There aren't any lower limits. You need to attain at least one seat. So that amounts to:
16 million people, say 10 million can vote; 70% of that will vote; divide by 150 for one seat = somewhat over 40.000 votes to get in parliament.
Bos and Balkenende have clashed heads too often to go all smiles again and negotiate without becoming the joke of the century. The worst option would the Denmark scenario: a minority government between CDA and VVD - in other words, a continuation of what we've had the past aching four years.
