We should ask cui bono? We have no choice but to note that those who were likely to wish for Pierre Gemayel's death are all those who wanted Syria to reappear on the Lebanese stage and the disintegration og the Lebanese State. The perpetrators are perhaps Lebanese but the orders came from the Syrians. The construction of a strong and independent Lebanese State is the worst thing that could happen to Syria, who can, at the moment, act in Lebanon as if she was at home.Il faut chercher à qui profite le crime. On est bien obligé de constater que ceux qui pouvaient souhaiter la mort de Pierre Gemayel sont tous ceux qui veulent le retour de la Syrie sur la scène libanaise et la désintégration de l'Etat libanais. Les exécutants sont peut-être libanais mais les commanditaires sont syriens. La construction d'un Etat libanais fort et indépendant est ce qui peut arriver de pire à la Syrie, qui peut pour l'instant agir au Liban comme si elle était chez elle. LM: The very day of the assassination, Syria moved closer to Iraq and said she was ready to cooperate with Baghdad. Isn't there a contradiction between a Syria putting up a good show on the international scene, and a Syria assassinating in Lebanon? AS: Syria wants closer relations with Baghdad but that doesn't mean at all that she wants closer relations with the Americans. Damascus can make moves towards Iraq while continuing to acrt as she wishes in her traditional zone of influence. The signal is dispatched more to the Lebanese themselves : Syria will not accept the constitution of a tribunal to judge Rafik Hariri's murderers, and doesn't want her pawns in Lebanon ejected. But this murder also show that Damascus is more and more under Tehran's orders.LM : Le jour même de l'assassinat, la Syrie se rapproche de l'Irak et se dit prête à coopérer avec Bagdad. N'y a-t-il pas une contradiction entre une Syrie qui fait bonne figure sur la scène internationale et une Syrie qui assassine au Liban ? AS : La Syrie veut se rapprocher de Bagdad mais cela ne signifie nullement qu'elle cherche à se rapprocher des Américains. Damas peut faire des avancées vers l'Irak tout en continuant à agir à sa guise dans son aire d'influence traditionnelle. Le signal est davantage destiné aux Libanais eux-mêmes : la Syrie n'acceptera pas la constitution d'un tribunal pour juger les assassins de Rafic Hariri et ne veut pas que ses pions au Liban soient évincés. Mais cet assassinat montre aussi que Damas se met de plus en plus à la botte de Téhéran.
AS: Syria wants closer relations with Baghdad but that doesn't mean at all that she wants closer relations with the Americans. Damascus can make moves towards Iraq while continuing to acrt as she wishes in her traditional zone of influence.
The signal is dispatched more to the Lebanese themselves : Syria will not accept the constitution of a tribunal to judge Rafik Hariri's murderers, and doesn't want her pawns in Lebanon ejected. But this murder also show that Damascus is more and more under Tehran's orders.
AS : La Syrie veut se rapprocher de Bagdad mais cela ne signifie nullement qu'elle cherche à se rapprocher des Américains. Damas peut faire des avancées vers l'Irak tout en continuant à agir à sa guise dans son aire d'influence traditionnelle.
Le signal est davantage destiné aux Libanais eux-mêmes : la Syrie n'acceptera pas la constitution d'un tribunal pour juger les assassins de Rafic Hariri et ne veut pas que ses pions au Liban soient évincés. Mais cet assassinat montre aussi que Damas se met de plus en plus à la botte de Téhéran.
No guarantees as to whether Sfeir is right. When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind
But I said there were no guarantees Sfeir was right. He's a well-informed and often enlightening commentator, but he has a clear point of view -- he's of Lebanese origin and a Christian.
Anyway : what other theories are there if Syria wasn't behind the Gemayel murder? (Open, not rhetorical, question). When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind
It is an even more murkier world than Italian secret services. *Traitor*, n. A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
Because if one-third of the 24 cabinet ministers quit (or, apparently, die) then it automatically brings down the government. Six have already walked out, plus one dead... and now the sketchy stories about some kind of shooting at Michel Pharon's office... so now many people are asking who would benefit from this?
Ya Libnan: Coup d'etat underway in Lebanon? Beirut - The assassination of Pierre Gemayel means that two more ministers need to resign or be killed in order to bring down the anti-Syrian government. As if one assassination were not enough bloodshed for one day, the murderers proceeded to target another anti-Syrian Member of Parliament - Michel Pharaon. Syria's allies in Lebanon are planning to take the streets on Thursday to demand the government resign. The pro-Syrian allies in Lebanon include Hezbollah, Michel Aoun's political party and Nabih Berri's Amal movement.
Beirut - The assassination of Pierre Gemayel means that two more ministers need to resign or be killed in order to bring down the anti-Syrian government.
As if one assassination were not enough bloodshed for one day, the murderers proceeded to target another anti-Syrian Member of Parliament - Michel Pharaon.
Syria's allies in Lebanon are planning to take the streets on Thursday to demand the government resign. The pro-Syrian allies in Lebanon include Hezbollah, Michel Aoun's political party and Nabih Berri's Amal movement.
While I was on their site I came across this - note the date:
Geagea predicts assassinations of Lebanon ministers Saturday, 18 November, 2006 @ 9:45 AM Beirut - Samir Geagea an anti-Syrian Christian leader said on Friday efforts to topple Lebanon's Western-backed government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora could lead to assassination attempts against cabinet ministers. (...) Geagea told Reuters that the government now has 17 ministers, if 3 of these ministers were eliminated then the government will automatically fall. (...) He would not say who might try to kill ministers, but said Syria has some minor allies in Lebanon who may attempt the assassinations to prevent the international court from taking place.
Beirut - Samir Geagea an anti-Syrian Christian leader said on Friday efforts to topple Lebanon's Western-backed government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora could lead to assassination attempts against cabinet ministers. (...) Geagea told Reuters that the government now has 17 ministers, if 3 of these ministers were eliminated then the government will automatically fall. (...) He would not say who might try to kill ministers, but said Syria has some minor allies in Lebanon who may attempt the assassinations to prevent the international court from taking place.
I had the impression everyone else was worried mainly about the promised mass demos, thought street-fighting or shootouts might break out.. first I'd heard about expectations of ministers being assassinated! Also striking how so far the action (prediction + attacks) all seems to be inside the contentious little world of Lebanon's Christian parties.
Jumping onto a completely different hypothesis-track: I've read somewhere that in the Palestinian camps in Lebanon there are some Salafist factions that are both fiercely anti-Lebanese-Christian (...bad bad memories...) and strongly anti-Shi'ite for sectarian reasons.. some of which are tending towards AQ if not actually allied with it? AQ is another "player" that would just LOVE the havoc of civil war in Lebanon - as would Israel. "Ignoring moralities is always undesirable, but doing so systematically is really worrisome." Mohammed Khatami
An interesting snippet:
The Al-Hayat newspaper reported that al-Qaida issued the statement from the Palestinian refugee camp of Nahr el-Bared in northern Lebanon. "The organization has arrived in Lebanon and we will work on destroying this corrupt government that receives orders from the American administration," Al-Hayat said, quoting the statement. Although it was impossible to verify the authenticity of the message, Information Minister Ghazi Aridi cast doubt on its veracity Monday.
"The organization has arrived in Lebanon and we will work on destroying this corrupt government that receives orders from the American administration," Al-Hayat said, quoting the statement.
Although it was impossible to verify the authenticity of the message, Information Minister Ghazi Aridi cast doubt on its veracity Monday.
It's just possible that AQ guys among the Palestinians north of Beirut did carry out the job.
In the camps, they are relatively open, and I know several people who have actually met them there. In other parts of the country, friends who live in Lebanon tell me they're a known presence, but much more secretive. In both cases, a significant number of them have returned to Lebanon from Iraq. But we are also not talking about hundreds or thousands of people, from what I understand.
BTW, maybe US intel would be worth something if it recruited you... *Traitor*, n. A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
Actually, I don't know whether to be insulted or relieved that they've never tried. I know a couple of people they have approached. But their language skills are better than mine....
BTW Gemayel was not an angel, i have not tears for him
Ah well, I clearly lack GeaGea's uncanny premonitory gifts. "Ignoring moralities is always undesirable, but doing so systematically is really worrisome." Mohammed Khatami
Also, depending on who's doing the killing, Aoun wouldn't necessarily be a target. He is Hezbollah's key Christian ally, and we certainly can't rule out that they did this. All this speculation is just that -- speculation. Nobody knows a damn thing, and the different groups in Lebanon will believe what they want to believe, probably regardless of what the evidence says.
Everyone thinks everyone is a target in Lebanon. People have been predicting the imminent assassination of Walid Jumblatt for years. (One of my friends, who was about 10 blocks away when the bomb killed Hariri, said that every single person in the room with him looked up when they heard the sound and said, "Hmmm, wonder if they finally got Jumblatt?") And yet he still moves around with relative ease. (I unexpectedly ended up four feet away from him last year as he arrived on foot at the big rally on the one-year anniversary of the Hariri assassination.)
Since Hizbollah managed to survive its war with Israel, AQ has been playing catch up in trying to prove that it will be the ultimate defender of Islam. They don't like playing second fiddle to a bunch of Shi'a heretics.
It wouldn't surprise me that they would try to do a trifecta of assassinations in Lebanon to topple the government and prove that they can play power broker. Even though the action would bring Hizbollah to power, it would be at their hand and not the direct action of Nasrallah and company.
It also begs the question of Syrian complicity. Syria was fairly willing to let foreign jihadists make their way into Iraq the last few years. This situation would also serve their interests - topple the current government without getting their fingerprints on the dirty work.
Methinks that's 99% US propaganda, and rather lousy for that. If the US failed to control borders with all their night-vision, satellite and aerial equipment, how come the Syrians were supposed to do better. *Traitor*, n. A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
My point is not that the Syrian regime has been an active supporter and director of Sunni extremists moving into Iraq and Lebanon. To encourage them is to let them put roots down in your own country and they definitely don't want that. One need only look at Pakistan to see how well that works.
As for border control, comparisons to the U.S. are meaningless. It isn't that the Syrians should be able to control the border (they can't). However, an autocratic regime built on the support of a strong and often brutal internal security apparatus SHOULD know generally what kinds of people are passing in and out of the country. If you can't manage that, then you aren't likely to stay in power long (especially when you are an ethnic minority in a majority Sunni country). So what I am suggesting is that the Syrian government (at some level) was very likely aware of Sunni radicals moving into Lebanon.
The point being that Syria has an interest in seeing the current government in Lebanon fall. If they can find an agent willing to help that process along, why wouldn't they exploit it. It lets them deny they were involved and it allows Nasrallah to take power with clean hands.
Well, and Saddam was aware that Zarqawi was in the country. Only, the US propagandists forgot to mention that he actually wanted Z to be killed, but couldn't get him. Even secret services of police states don't know everything. Another thing is that while US propaganda focused on foreign insurgents and among them on those coming from Syria, in truth more came via Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Same 'failure' there.
It lets them deny they were involved and it allows Nasrallah to take power with clean hands.
The useful idiot version has more clout, but I don't see al-Qaida types willing to be agents for Baath. If Syria used pawns, then more obscure ones. BTW I don't think they would want Nasrallah. Nasrallah is too independent, and even the ties he has are more to Iran than Syria. They would want Berri. (There is a long history of Syrian intrigues to get Hezbollah to accept a minority role in a Shi'a coalition with Amal.) *Traitor*, n. A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
In general, I believe that Syria was aware of the kinds of people passing through their territory (the regime couldn't survive if it wasn't able to manage that). That isn't the same as saying that they can shut off the tap or that they are directing the operations.
Iraqi WMD. *Traitor*, n. A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
Now this way it makes more sense, though methinks Syria might prefer to live with a President Aoun than play a risky game. *Traitor*, n. A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
