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Thanks for the link -Ya Libnan seems to be the only English-language site on the web mentioning the almost-simultaneous attack against the office of Michel Pharaon.

While I was on their site I came across this - note the date:


Geagea predicts assassinations of Lebanon ministers
Saturday, 18 November, 2006 @ 9:45 AM

Beirut - Samir Geagea an anti-Syrian Christian leader said on Friday efforts to topple Lebanon's Western-backed government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora could lead to assassination attempts against cabinet ministers.
(...)
Geagea told Reuters that the government now has 17 ministers, if 3 of these ministers were eliminated then the government will automatically fall.
(...)
He would not say who might try to kill ministers, but said Syria has some minor allies in Lebanon who may attempt the assassinations to prevent the international court from taking place.

I had the impression everyone else was worried mainly about the promised mass demos, thought street-fighting or shootouts might break out.. first I'd heard about expectations of ministers being assassinated! Also striking how so far the action (prediction + attacks) all seems to be inside the contentious little world of Lebanon's Christian parties.

Jumping onto a completely different hypothesis-track: I've read somewhere that in the Palestinian camps in Lebanon there are some Salafist factions that are both fiercely anti-Lebanese-Christian (...bad bad memories...) and strongly anti-Shi'ite for sectarian reasons.. some of which are tending towards AQ if not actually allied with it? AQ is another "player" that would just LOVE the havoc of civil war in Lebanon - as would Israel.    


"Ignoring moralities is always undesirable, but doing so systematically is really worrisome." Mohammed Khatami

by eternalcityblues (parvati_roma aaaat libero.it) on Tue Nov 21st, 2006 at 08:10:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Check out this AP Story from November 13th.

An interesting snippet:

The Al-Hayat newspaper reported that al-Qaida issued the statement from the Palestinian refugee camp of Nahr el-Bared in northern Lebanon.

"The organization has arrived in Lebanon and we will work on destroying this corrupt government that receives orders from the American administration," Al-Hayat said, quoting the statement.

Although it was impossible to verify the authenticity of the message, Information Minister Ghazi Aridi cast doubt on its veracity Monday.

It's just possible that AQ guys among the Palestinians north of Beirut did carry out the job.  

by Hoya90 (hoya90jmk-at-yahoo-dot-com) on Tue Nov 21st, 2006 at 08:43:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Also possible: some local group taking al-Qaida's mantle.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 03:31:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Or any one of a hundred plots straight out of a spy novel ... Israel trying to link the conflict in the region more closely to the  War of Terror, for instance.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 03:35:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
As I said, an even more murkier world than Italian secret services. (AFAIK we still don't know exactly who organised and executed the embassy and US GI barracks suicide bombings in the early eighties.)

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 03:37:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
AQ is in Lebanon, and, I'm told, not just in the Palestinian camps (most of which are fairly heavily guarded, to the point that they're virtual prisons).  They have been keeping a low profile, but they're there.
by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 05:14:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That said, I don't think it's in their interest to topple the current government.
by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 05:15:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sorry for asking, but according to whom (or at least how reliable is the source - street rumour or reliable intelligence?), and what precisely do they mean by AQ?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 05:17:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's hard to say what AQ is anywhere... but these are militant Salafis who in some but not all cases will self-identify as AQ, which even so may mean nothing more than an ideological affinity for the network rather than organizational or operational ties.

In the camps, they are relatively open, and I know several people who have actually met them there.  In other parts of the country, friends who live in Lebanon tell me they're a known presence, but much more secretive.  In both cases, a significant number of them have returned to Lebanon from Iraq.  But we are also not talking about hundreds or thousands of people, from what I understand.

by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 05:42:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There is even a Bin-Laden-praising Sunni party in Parliament, but strangely enough, it is part of the March 14th coalition.

BTW, maybe US intel would be worth something if it recruited you...

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 05:57:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
AAAAAHH!  Bite your tongue!

Actually, I don't know whether to be insulted or relieved that they've never tried.  I know a couple of people they have approached.  But their language skills are better than mine....

by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 06:09:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Also, I understand your curiosity as to the sourcing, so for a little independent verification ... this excellent story has much of the same information.
by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 05:48:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Can I take this opportunity to say, yet again, "Told you so you stupid fucking muscular liberal wankers". Not that there are any reading here. All straight out of "How to create global holy war for dummies", coming soon.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Nov 22nd, 2006 at 06:06:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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