Also, depending on who's doing the killing, Aoun wouldn't necessarily be a target.  He is Hezbollah's key Christian ally, and we certainly can't rule out that they did this.  All this speculation is just that -- speculation.  Nobody knows a damn thing, and the different groups in Lebanon will believe what they want  to believe, probably regardless of what the evidence says.

Everyone thinks everyone is a target in Lebanon.  People have been predicting the imminent assassination of Walid Jumblatt for years.  (One of my friends, who was about 10 blocks away when the bomb killed Hariri, said that every single person in the room with him looked up when they heard the sound and said, "Hmmm, wonder if they finally got Jumblatt?")  And yet he still moves around with relative ease.  (I unexpectedly ended up four feet away from him last year as he arrived on foot at the big rally on the one-year anniversary of the Hariri assassination.)