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We had a discussion on that with Migeru a few weeks ago. http://www.eurotrib.com/comments/2006/11/5/224337/782/9#9

We googled'up correlations. It appears inflation is very bad when it turns to hyper-inflation, but mild inflation has little redistributive impact. It can be good for the middle class with easy access to credit, by melting the debt (it helped most boomers of the now-industrialized nations after WWII), but does nothing for the very poor.

Upon thinking about it a little more, I came to the idea that it's may be inequality to access to the money supply, the other armed hand of the central bank. Many say the present bubble stems in part from the fed "printing money", increasing M3, etc.. So once there's so much money, all asset classes spike up - which is actually inflation, except it doesn't impact the retail sector. But honestly, retail isn't the main budget item of the middle class, it's by far the rent/mortgage for the housing, followed by the more or less compulsory savings for retirement (except with those crazy americans) - and if the assed where you put you're savings are spiking, you effectively suffer from strong inflation.

So the "real" inflation in the past years, taking into account those bubbling assets, has indeed been very hard to the people, much more than core price index would say. Net wages have eroded even worse than you argued in many passed comments. But this is a side note, back to my money supply idea...

This supplied money is injected mostly on the state and corporate bonds markets, where banks loan all this cash they don't know what to do about. They have so much they make risky loans with very low rate premiums, to corporations/hedge funds primarily. Never to Mr. Average D. Joe. The supplied money does not trickle down, it stays in the asset bubbles. And benefits the investment bankers who take fees, the CEO with the options and golden parachutes, and corporations which can fund capital-intensive projects to eliminate workers at cheap rates, then buy back their shares (so the funds and fund managers benefit also).

Pierre

by Pierre on Tue Nov 21st, 2006 at 10:08:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It boggles my mind that we can have 10% housing price growth per year, sustained over 10 to 15 years, and with the rule of thumb that people spend about 1/3 of their income on housing, and that anyone can claim that inflation is below 3 percent.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 21st, 2006 at 10:14:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yep. Even worst than that in France in the past 7 years: +15%/yr. But it's over just like in the US, although noone with a foot in the business will readily admit yet:

When averaged over a longer period covering the 1992 crash, housing inflation in France is more moderate. But not everyone has the resource to hold on during the bubble years in a market with 15-year cycles.

I think the long term driver (averaging over a generation) cannot be anything else than demographics, hence the housing collapse in Germany. Spain, with its record low fertility rates, looks like the perfect hyper-bubble to me. Will burst when the retired Britons buying on the coast will no longer be able to "commute" their on low cost airlines...

Pierre

by Pierre on Tue Nov 21st, 2006 at 10:20:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How were Spanish fertility rates 20-30 years ago?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Nov 21st, 2006 at 10:22:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Knock yourself out.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 21st, 2006 at 10:26:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I love national stats agencies.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Nov 21st, 2006 at 10:32:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm actually quite pleased with the quality of the INE online database.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 21st, 2006 at 10:39:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I was being perfectly sincere.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Nov 21st, 2006 at 10:53:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Touched bottom in 1996/8 at 35.46 children per 1000 women aged 15-49, down from 79.19 in 1975 (when I was born) and back up to 41.88 in 2005 (same level as in 1989/90).

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 21st, 2006 at 10:44:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I knew I wasn´t senile!  H.B.!

Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. -Charu Saxena.
by metavision on Tue Nov 21st, 2006 at 12:51:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Mi no comprende, ni este ni el otro.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 21st, 2006 at 01:11:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Dijiste que estabas a punto de cumplir 31, en algún comentario: F.cumple, no?.

Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. -Charu Saxena.
by metavision on Tue Nov 21st, 2006 at 04:43:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I am 31 and I'm on the tail end of Spain's "Baby boom". That might be a factor.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 21st, 2006 at 10:24:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It is here, together with the immigration. It's not just a bubble in Spain or Ireland. It's an irrational bubble on top of a demographically driven demand. My guess in Ireland is that the market is about 20% over or so - the OECD say 14%. The average is heavily distorted by mad prices for some "desirable" properties though. I'd say the bottom of the market is maybe 10% over and the middle to top anything up to 50% over.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Nov 21st, 2006 at 10:29:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
<my lips are sealed>  for two remarks.

Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. -Charu Saxena.
by metavision on Tue Nov 21st, 2006 at 12:54:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Of course asset inflation is inflation, and it IS hurting the poor most (and it will even more when it crashes).

That's part of the whole class war, and Trichet, who again dared say last week that he followed asset prices, was roundly condemned for outdated thinking.

Hang on to your euros.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Nov 21st, 2006 at 10:24:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The problem is that salaries are pegged to inflation measures that exclude asset inflation by definition.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 21st, 2006 at 10:34:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Remember that buying a house is counted as an investment and so not counted in inflation.

When you rent it is counted in inflation, but rent raises are controlled in most countries (like France) so this doesn't show up in inflation. And most people do not rent anyway so the weight in the inflation basket is not high.

by Laurent GUERBY on Tue Nov 21st, 2006 at 05:01:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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