The Bourbons are back. How will it end this time? | 95 comments (95 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Inflation (4.00 / 2)

Yep. Even worst than that in France in the past 7 years: +15%/yr. But it's over just like in the US, although noone with a foot in the business will readily admit yet:

When averaged over a longer period covering the 1992 crash, housing inflation in France is more moderate. But not everyone has the resource to hold on during the bubble years in a market with 15-year cycles.

I think the long term driver (averaging over a generation) cannot be anything else than demographics, hence the housing collapse in Germany. Spain, with its record low fertility rates, looks like the perfect hyper-bubble to me. Will burst when the retired Britons buying on the coast will no longer be able to "commute" their on low cost airlines...

Pierre

by Pierre on Tue Nov 21st, 2006 at 10:20:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Inflation (none / 1)

How were Spanish fertility rates 20-30 years ago?

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Nov 21st, 2006 at 10:22:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Inflation (4.00 / 2)

Knock yourself out.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 21st, 2006 at 10:26:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Inflation (none / 0)

I love national stats agencies.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Nov 21st, 2006 at 10:32:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Inflation (none / 0)

I'm actually quite pleased with the quality of the INE online database.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 21st, 2006 at 10:39:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Inflation (none / 0)

I was being perfectly sincere.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Nov 21st, 2006 at 10:53:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Inflation (none / 0)

Touched bottom in 1996/8 at 35.46 children per 1000 women aged 15-49, down from 79.19 in 1975 (when I was born) and back up to 41.88 in 2005 (same level as in 1989/90).

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 21st, 2006 at 10:44:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Inflation (none / 0)

I knew I wasn´t senile! H.B.!

Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. -Charu Saxena.

by metavision on Tue Nov 21st, 2006 at 12:51:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Inflation (none / 0)

Mi no comprende, ni este ni el otro.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 21st, 2006 at 01:11:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Inflation (none / 1)

Dijiste que estabas a punto de cumplir 31, en algún comentario: F.cumple, no?.

Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. -Charu Saxena.

by metavision on Tue Nov 21st, 2006 at 04:43:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Inflation (none / 1)

I am 31 and I'm on the tail end of Spain's "Baby boom". That might be a factor.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 21st, 2006 at 10:24:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Inflation (4.00 / 2)

It is here, together with the immigration. It's not just a bubble in Spain or Ireland. It's an irrational bubble on top of a demographically driven demand. My guess in Ireland is that the market is about 20% over or so - the OECD say 14%. The average is heavily distorted by mad prices for some "desirable" properties though. I'd say the bottom of the market is maybe 10% over and the middle to top anything up to 50% over.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Nov 21st, 2006 at 10:29:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Inflation (none / 0)

<my lips are sealed> for two remarks.

Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. -Charu Saxena.

by metavision on Tue Nov 21st, 2006 at 12:54:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The Bourbons are back. How will it end this time? | 95 comments (95 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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