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I meant to comment of yesterday's Evening Standard but, it being 24h old already, it's probably somewhat out of date. It's still interesting.

The front page screams 'Murdered by the Kremlin'. I only now realised the quotation marks, but the quotation is unattributed. Maybe it comes from the "Russian exiles in London" in the first paragraph of the story. The front page also claimed that "Yard probbe leads to Moscow".

The article points out that Litvinenko was employed by Boris Berezovski, who "was in no doubt about what killed the ex-spy". As the paper was printed before the Po 210 claims surfaced, the paper just talks about the initial hypothesis of Thallium poisoning, but also that as late as yesterday the doctors were considering "natural causes". I am personally rather baffled that it took until after his death for polonium to be detected in his urine. He was admitted to hospital on November 1 already!

Anyway, here's what wikipedia has to say about Polonium...

A very rare element in nature, polonium is found in uranium ores at about 100 micrograms per metric ton (1:10^10). Its natural abundance is approximately 0.2% of radium's.

...

Polonium is so exceedingly rare that only about 100 grams is believed to be produced each year.

...

Polonium has 25 known isotopes all of which are radioactive. They have atomic masses that range from 194 u to 218 u. 210Po is the most widely available.

...

Polonium 210 is an alpha emitter that has a half-life of 138.376 days. A milligram of 210Po emits as many alpha particles as 5 grams of radium. A great deal of energy is released by its decay with a half a gram quickly reaching a temperature above 750 K. A few curies (gigabecquerels) of 210Po emit a blue glow which is caused by excitation of surrounding air. A single gram of 210Po generates 140 watts of power. Since nearly all alpha radiation can be easily stopped by ordinary containers and upon hitting its surface releases its energy, 210Po has been used as a lightweight heat source to power thermoelectric cells in artificial satellites. A 210Po heat source was also used in each of the Lunokhod rovers deployed on the surface of the Moon, to keep their internal components warm during the lunar nights.

Polonium is really only dangerous if ingested, then as
Because of their charge and large mass, alpha particles are easily absorbed by materials and can travel only a few centimeters in air. They can be absorbed by tissue paper or the outer layers of human skin (about 40 micrometres, equivalent to a few cells deep) and so are not generally dangerous to life unless the source is ingested or inhaled.
However,
the amount of material required to produce a lethal dose of radiation poisoning would be only about 0.12 micrograms (1.17×10−7g). [...] the effective half life in humans of polonium is 37 days. The biological halflife is 30 to 50 days in humans.

So, continuing with the Standard, it had another background piece which is a veritable gallery of unsavoury characters. According to this story, Mario Scaramella met Litvinenko to give them "a hit list" on which both their names appeared (allegedly Scaramella came to London out of fear, and to ask Litvinenko's advice). Although the Standard claims that they got to see the documents yesterday, and that the papers bore "the name of a man [Litvinenko] knew wanted him dead", we're not told who this man is. Here's the interesting bit...

The papers ... name a group called Dignity and Honour as a potential threat. A man closely connected to it, Mr. Litvinenko knew, was his mortal enemy.

The organisation, which operates out of Moscow, is made up of ex-KGB spies who offer themselves for hire.

So, the papers don't actually bear the "name" of who wanted Litvinenko dead, or do they? And is this how the probe "leads back to Moscow", which on the front page was insiuated as Moscow = Kremlin = Putin?
"They are old-fashioned spies who couldn't give up the game", a Moscow security source said. "Technically, they are all retired. But most people see them as an extension of Putin's secret service."

Mr. Litvinenko's friends believe rogue elements in Dignity and Honour may have been involved in the decision to assassinate him.

Notice the rogue.
The group has close links to Russia's [...] Federal Security Service, the renamed KGB, and Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) [...]

The organisation was instrumental in freeing a Dutch doctor, Arjan Erkel, who was kidnapped in Daguestan in 2004. ...

This contributed to a suspicion in security circles that the old spies were being used by the FSB and SVR to do their dirty work. The Moscow source said: "If it's dodgy and it goes wrong, the government can say 'it wasn't our guys'..."

Vladimir Putin, a former head of the FSB, is said to be an admirer of Dignity and Honour. One of its leading members is believed to have been Putin's station commander in Dresden...

Interesting, but I can't help but notice the unnamed sources, and the interveaving of (much) hearsay and (few) facts. Here comes the interesting bit (linking up to the "rogue elements within D&H" above
If the murder of Mr. Litvinenko was not directly ordered by the Kremlin, or overseen by its security apparatus, it would explain why it took place at an embarrassing time for Mr. Putin. He was at the Asian summit agreeing the terms of Russia's entry to the World Trade Organisation with President Bush. A rogue hitman would not be directly answerable.
"An embarrassing time", just like Politkovskaya was murdered on Putin's birthday.
The documents Prof. Scaramella showed Mr. Litvinenko also linked Dignity and Honour to the murder of journalist Anna Politkovskaya...
And then the piece turns to the internal struggle among Russian expats, and within Russia
London, [those close to the world of Russian exiles] say, has become a battlefield in a new Cold War being fought between an increasingly authoritarian Russia and a new generation of dissidents and others it sees as enemies.

The city has long been a haven for such people. The most famous refugee from Mr. Putin's Russia is Boris Berezovski, the billionaire oligarch the Russians have been trying to extradite for alleged fraud.

...

... Mr. Litvinenko was on Mr. Berezovski's payroll, but he was only one man in the former oligarch's campaign.

Part of his strategy is to hit back with high-powered PR. He has recruited Lord Bell, the doyen of London's public relations executives...

Indeed, Mr. Berezovski believes the Kremlin spin machine will suggest he was somehow involved in the murder. If it makes Putin look bad, the reasoning goes, it makes Berezovski look good.

In this dark new combat, the Kremlin has its own PR Batteries. The Russian government has signed a multi-million pound contract with the American PR firm, Ketchum. They are using two heavyweights in London: Tim Allen, a former Downing Street spin doctor, and Angus Roxburgh, a former BBC correspondent in Moscow. ...

The Kremlin won [the Yukos] battle, but Mr. Nevzlin, [the dollar billionaire who worked with Misha and] who now lives in Israel, has not abandoned the fight. ...

One man who has kept himself out of the fray is Roman Abramovich, the owner of Chelsea Football Club. Although Mr. Putin describes him as one of the oligarchs who "took advantage" when Russian state assets were wold in the early Nineties, he was allowed to sell them back at what was believed to be a market price, leaving his estimated £7 billion fortune intact.

Alexander Litvinenko said, shortly before he was poisoned, that Mr. Abramovich has a special relationship with the Kremlin. "He is Putin's accountant," he said.

The Standard chose to highlight this one statement in a large-type inset in the middle of the page, though amusingly (or anoyingly) it went on to say
It's the kind of statement, without supporting evidence, that Mr. Litvinenko often made.
Oh, goody.

It's all very interesting and introduces what might be a fairly complete gallery of characters, but the journalistic style [measured by the highlighted text and the headlines] is sensationalist and borderline dishonest.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Nov 25th, 2006 at 03:22:05 PM EST
this kind of stuff makes it much more weird.. and less clear cut..There is quite a lot of dishonesty around...from suggesting that he poisoned himself to saying that it was clear Putin cut...I do nto think anybody can guaranteee anything.

Regardign radioactivity and the time delay to detect.. well you basically must look for it.. it doe snot come out ina nomral test. You need to know that first, you ahve a poisoned patient.. and then guess that radioactivity can be the case...

SO.. unles yu have the brilliant idea .. you do not do the test.

Regarding Polonium 210..the main problem for transport and use I think is heat or porobably light.
Being alpha and not neutrons makes it very easy to shield...

Still... I woud not put a gram of substance because of the brilance..

Thanks a lot for the comment.. great

A pleasure


I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sat Nov 25th, 2006 at 04:14:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Regarding Polonium 210..the main problem for transport and use I think is heat or porobably light.
Being alpha and not neutrons makes it very easy to shield...
According to wikipedia 1g of Po210 produces 140W, that is, hotter than a 100W incandescent bulb. Also, the density of Po is about 9g per cubic centimetre, so a cubic millimetre weights 9mg. That's still "large enough to handle", to use your same words, but would only generate 0.14W of heat and would be 75000 times the deadly dose. Also according to wikipedia, polonium dissolves readily in acids. What is the Ph of miso soup, or of soy sauce?

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Nov 25th, 2006 at 04:25:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
MMhh.. you are going for the 0.01 gr..mmhhhhh.

mmhh a cubic milimeter takes too much effort to control...I prefer soemthing alittle bit larger... around 3 mm on one direction if it is a salt grain type..10 cubic milimeter for me with rughly 0.1 g... 1.4 watts...

yeah I see... I thougt it was less than 1.4 watts for my killing dosis...

It is amazing how mcuh detaisl you can get if you google it.. you really can make until the last detail... 1.4 watts-- yeah maybe alittle bit toomuch.

I will put it on 50mg with the precise data yu bring to the table....

But in any case.. I would have get an A+ in the order of magnitudes funny exam in first year of udnergraduate...my teacher will be proud..

How many "afinadores de pianos" are there in Chicago..and how much mass of Po210 would you use if you want to poison someone .. I now know both answers... :)

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sat Nov 25th, 2006 at 04:37:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
mmhh a cubic milimeter takes too much effort to control...I prefer soemthing alittle bit larger... around 3 mm on one direction if it is a salt grain type..10 cubic milimeter for me with rughly 0.1 g... 1.4 watts...
Bah, a cubic millimetre (75000 the deadly dose) is about the size of a grain of coarse salt. Hardly difficult to handle. and for transportation Just wrap it in tinfoil or something. Or, even better, dissolve it in vinegar or soy sauce. Remember you only need to put 1/75000 of the product in the food, and the rest you can flush down the toilet. Plus, the plastic or glass container for the soy sauce will provide you with good shielding.

By the way, looking at wikipedia's Radiation poisoning page, we can guess the dose he received. It was no more than 6 Sievert (based on the time it took for him to feel indisposed)

6-10 Sv (600-1,000 REM)
Acute radiation poisoning, near 100% fatality after 14 days (LD 100/14). Survival depends on intense medical care. Bone marrow is nearly or completely destroyed, so a bone marrow transplant is required. Gastric and intestinal tissue are severely damaged. Symptoms start 15 to 30 minutes after irradiation and last for up to 2 days. Subsequently, there is a 5 to 10 day latent phase, after which the person dies of infection or internal bleeding. Recovery would take several years and probably would never be complete.
and at least 3 Sievert (based on his hair loss)
2-3 Sv (200-300 REM)
Severe radiation poisoning, 35% fatality after 30 days (LD 35/30). Nausea is common (100% at 3 Sv), with 50% risk of vomiting at 2.8 Sv. Symptoms onset at 1 to 6 hours after irradiation and last for 1 to 2 days. After that, there is a 7 to 14 day latent phase, after which the following symptoms appear: loss of hair all over the body (50% probability at 3 Sv), fatigue and general illness. There is a massive loss of leukocytes (white blood cells), greatly increasing the risk of infection. Permanent female sterility is possible. Convalescence takes one to several months.
Back to the Polonium wikipedia article, 3 to 6 Sievert requires 5.8 to 11.6 million Becquerels, or 0.035 to 0.070 microgrammes of ingested Polonium to kill in this fashion. Ingesting 50 milligrammes will give you a dose of 4 million Sieverts, and
More than 80 Sv (>8,000 REM)
U.S. military forces expect immediate death. A worker receiving 100 Sv (10,000 REM) in an accident at Wood River, Rhode Island, USA on 24 July 1964 survived for 49 hours after exposure, and an operator receiving 120 Sv (12,000 REM) to his upper body in an accident at Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA on 30 December 1958 survived for 36 hours; details of this accident can be found on page 16 (page 30 in the PDF version) of Los Alamos' 2000 Review of Criticality Accidents.


Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Nov 25th, 2006 at 05:01:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You are a fucking genious of wiki...

my god.. never imagine that search!!

But we have a problem here with the does and the days in hospital.

I mean. If he really took only 6 Sv, 1 mg is also way too much.

there is soemthing wrong in these figures. It does not match what I thought I had read. I will be back.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sat Nov 25th, 2006 at 06:06:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Maybe there should be a Wikipedia version of El tiempo es oro,  the old quiz show with Constantino Romero.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Nov 25th, 2006 at 07:49:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Is it normal that radiation poisoning would lead to heart failure, by the way?

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Nov 25th, 2006 at 07:53:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Let us say that instead of 50 mg as I propose we take 1 mg of POlonium.

One miligram emits the same amoung of radioactivity than 5 gram of Radium. The radioactivity of 1 gram of Ra.. which is basically 1 Curie

So we are dealing with 150 GBq.. roughly

But the realtion between the decay and the energy is not straigthforward. I do nto know how many Bq produce 1 Sievert. It actually depends onthe enrgy carrier.
Int his case alpha particles. Bq is just the time per second that an alpha particle hits ana rea..how many energy carries 150G alpha particles?

From this you get the enrgy accumulated.. this msut be divided by one or two other of magnitudes depending onthe tissue, the distance and all that stuff.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sat Nov 25th, 2006 at 06:20:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Hmmm, the wikipedia article has been updated since I used it last night...
At a committed effective dose equivalent (CEDE) of 5.14×10^−7 Sieverts per Becquerel (1.9×103 mrem/microcurie) for ingested 210Po and a specific activity of 1.66×10^14 Bq/gram (4.49×103 Curies/gram)[4] the amount of material required to produce a lethal dose of 10 Sieverts would be only 0.12 micrograms (1.17×10−7g). The biological halflife is 50 to 30 days in humans.
Basically, whoever it was added the information that the "lethal dose" is taken to be 10 Sievert. The numbers are taken from a "nuclide safety chart" from the North Carolina Health Physics Society, so I assume the figures are correct.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Nov 25th, 2006 at 07:26:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
me four orders of magnitude wrong.

One order could be explained by effective dose and another rounding problem, tissue staff, effective values and so on. But three orders of magnitude is too much.

Problem is micrograms are very difficult to transport..

I quite do not believe I can be so off the park. and that micrograms and not miligrams is the appropriate order of magnitude.

I will check it again.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sat Nov 25th, 2006 at 08:12:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You can transport the microgram dissolved in vinegar (or soy sauce).

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Nov 25th, 2006 at 08:22:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I like it because is independent on wether you need miligrams or micrograms. You just ened soemplace to make the mixure accurately.. and then transport and delivery is just like any other poison.

Although miligrams would make the mixture extremelly easy...while micrograms.. well you need certain basic infraestructure.. first to trasnport the Po 210 probably mixed among other powder and then transported.. homogonize the mixture adn then mix it with the liquid.

It tkaes a ini-lab... something anybody can get ( i can do it in my house I know ehre to buy the stuff).. but it needs some tiem indeed.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sun Nov 26th, 2006 at 07:55:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There is a serious msitake.

It says that the specific activity is 1.66 10^14 Bq/grt
when actually Po 210 is like 5 gr of Ra.
1 Ra generates just 1 Curie or 3.7*10^10

So we are talking about roughly 1.6 *10^11 and not 1.6 *10^14... Here there are three orders of magnitude.

Am I wrong?

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sat Nov 25th, 2006 at 08:20:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
One mg of Po 210 is said to be liked 5 gr of Ra.. here the three orders of magnitude.

So if this ratio is correct I guess  there is some problem with the way the energy reaches to the tissue or I had a missmatch of three orders of magnitude.

I would bet that the ratio between Bq and actual energy in the tissue is not the given in the wiki article.

I will need some proof about this ratio.

Another option is to mix the amount of polonium in another substance so that alltogether is easy to handle.. but this would require some studd that you can not have at home..

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sat Nov 25th, 2006 at 08:27:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Check the PDF source. It is indeed 1.66e^14 Bq/g and 5.14e-7 Sv/Bq (ingested) or 2.54e-6 Sv/Bq (inhaled). So maybe the comparison with Radium is wrong. Also, the alpha particles emitted by radium might be much less energetic than those of Polonium. Radium 226 has a half-life of 1602y, so its alpha emission must also be much less energetic than that of Po210. I would expect thee kinetic energy of the alpha particle to be inversely proportional to the half-life. You get a factor of 4000 that way. Am I wrong?

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Nov 25th, 2006 at 08:31:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You know, the first time I read your comment I couldn't figure out what piano tuners had to do with Polonium... LOL

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Nov 25th, 2006 at 07:29:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Both could perfectly be exam questions in order of magnitude classes...

IN our case knowing that 1mg of Po210 is as radioactive as 5 gr of Ra..

:)

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sat Nov 25th, 2006 at 08:06:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yikes, 9mg would generate 1.26W, not 0.14W...

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Nov 25th, 2006 at 05:10:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Regardign radioactivity and the time delay to detect.. well you basically must look for it.. it doe snot come out ina nomral test. You need to know that first, you ahve a poisoned patient.. and then guess that radioactivity can be the case...

"Radioactivity", but not Polonium - radioactive thallium - was mentioned much earlier than this weekend. How much time does one need to check out urine for a pretty strong alpha radiation?

by Sargon on Mon Nov 27th, 2006 at 01:12:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The most common radioactive Thallium is a beta-emitter. But it is famous as chemical poison.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Dec 6th, 2006 at 09:56:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]


You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Sat Nov 25th, 2006 at 04:29:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's not what you know, but what you know how to search.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Nov 25th, 2006 at 05:11:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]


You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Sat Nov 25th, 2006 at 06:12:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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